Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Apple bounced strongly yesterday from support around 166.89 to close above its upper falling trendline. There is short-term potential up to strong resistance at around 178.67.
A daily close above this level could lay the foundation for further gains and confirm a double bottom pattern with potential up to around 190.
The RSI has been indicating trend exhaustion with higher values while Apple share price was declining but if RSI closes above the 60 threshold, the bullish scenario will be confirmed.
However, there is strong overhead resistance at around 184.85, and the 55, 100, and 200 daily Moving Averages are declining, indicating underlying bearish sentiment and trend.
If Apple is rejected at 178.67, the bearish trend is likely to resume.
On the medium-term weekly chart, the double top pattern is still in play, although not yet confirmed. A close below 165.67 is needed for confirmation, while a weekly close above 179.66 could demolish the double top pattern, confirming a return to a bullish medium-term trend.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is in the process of forming a descending triangle-like pattern. Key support is at 855.
A close above the upper falling trendline is likely to push SMCI to test the 0.618 retracement and resistance at around 1,086.
A daily close above could give buyers the energy to lift the share price to new all-time highs. Short-term to the 1.382 projection at 1,371, but potentially up to the 1.618 projection at 1,460 would be in the cards.
A daily close below 855 will result in a bearish breakout of the triangle with support at 698 likely to be reached.
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