Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Technical look at S&P 500/US500 cfd and Nasdaq 100 /USNAS100 cfd
S&P 500 closed a few points below key resistance at 4,177. A close above and there is no resistance before 4,300, which could be reached early next week.
To reverse this bullish picture a close below 3,910 is needed. If S&P 500 closes below 4,079 we could see a correction down to 4,017-3,974.
RSI is above 60 i.e. positive sentiment. If we see divergence and a break of the rising trend line it indicates uptrend is ending.
US500 cfd/S&P500 future is close to test its resistance at 4,200. Next resistance is at around 4,307. That level is quite strong; Rejected four times back in April-May (circled) and 200 SMA coming down putting a lid on the market.
Nasdaq 100 took off yesterday above its resistance. Next key resistance is at around 13,542. If Nasdaq closes above the upper rising trendline in the rising channel it is a sign of trend is accelerating. If this uptrend must continue traded volume needs to pick up. Yesterday was lower than on 29th July when the Index broke above resistance. If volume is dropping next couple of days when market is making new highs it is a sign of weakness.
To reverse the current uptrend a close below 12,051 is needed. However, a close below 12,809 will put the trend into neutral and could be first sign of a reversalUSNAS100/cfd/Nasdaq future. Next key resistance at 13,580. If breaking below 112,794 the uptrend is likely neutralized.
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