Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Technical Update - S&P 500 & Nasdaq. Rebound time, but for how long?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: The past 8 days of selling in US Equities looks to be set on pause for a few days. Minor correction should be expected. But a correction that most likely will not be long lived before selling could hit Equities again
S&P 500 ended last week with a neutral day. Short term the sell off could be exhausted and a minor rebound over the next couple of days should be expected.
However, the trend is down. No divergence on RSI indicates we are still to see lower levels towards the end of June.
A rebound will likely be short lived to resistance at 3,838 where selling pressure is likely to return. If S&P 500 closes above 3,838 it will try to close the gap up to 3,900. If it fails, it is a strong sign of weakness.
Down trend in S&P 500 accelerated last week breaking below falling lower trend line. There is no strong support until around 3,500 i.e. top of the consolidation area and 0.50 retracement of the 2020 low to 2022 peak. A dip below the 200 weekly SMA to 3,385 is not unlikely. However, the strongest support is around 3,210 which is both the 0.618 retracement
AND the bottom of the correction prior to the confirmation of the start of the bull market Q4 2020.
RSI in a falling channel with no divergence supporting the picture of lower levels.
Nasdaq 100 is set to open higher today after a long weekend. A correction to around 11,747 is likely before selling pressure most likely resumes. RSI is showing divergence supporting the correction scenario. A correction that could extend to around 0.618 retracement at 12,186 if the Index closes above 11,825. A close below 11,037 down trend will resume
Nasdaq spiked lower Friday retracing a few points off the top of support area of 10,960. RSI is showing divergence indicating weakening of the down trend. However, the trend IS still down and no bottom and reversal pattern formed meaning lower levels should be anticipated. The strong Consolidation/support area is key for the longer term picture
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3
Sandcastle economics
-
-
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.
-
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.
-
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.
-
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)