120419 WallstrM

Technical Update - S&P 500 stopped at key resistance, will it break it? Nasdaq 100 established short-term uptrend but it might be too fragile

Equities 3 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group

S&P500/US500 testing strong resistance for further upside. It can be too strong to break and next couple of days will be key. Even if broken upside seems limited.
Nasdaq 100/USNAS100 lagging S&P500 but has established uptrend. An uptrend that seems fragile and can easily falter and slide back resuming bear trend

 

S&P 500 closed the gap Friday with a strong move higher. peeped just above the key resistance at around 3,807 only to close below. 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the September sell-off is at 3,810. A close above needed to establish an uptrend.
RSI 14 is still below 60 threshold however, meaning it is still showing negative sentiment. If RSI is rejected at 60 the bear trend is likely to resume. If closing above, it is an indication of further upside momentum.
If S&P closes above 3,807, we could see a rally of another 100 points to strong resistance at 3,900.
55 and 100 SMA’s are coming down around that level i.e., the underlying sentiment is declining and will likely put a dampener on the possible uptrend. If that scenario plays out (that the Index closes above 3,807 and RSI above 60) S&P could run out of steam at the 0.618 retracement at around 3,879.

If S&P 500 slides back below 3,647 the bear trend will resume for lower lows. Look out ofr RSI breaking below its rising trendline

SP500 d 25oct
Source: Saxo Group

This morning the US500 cfd/S&P500 future is having another go at the 3,807 resistance. If US500 breaks above next resistance is at around 3,900.
A break below 3,630 is likely to lead to bear trend to resume. First indication of this scenario to play out could be RSI breaking below its rising trend line

US500 d 25oct
Source: Saxo Group

Nasdaq 100 has broken out of its falling channel but closed below the upper resistance of the Gap. A close above 11,478 is needed for further upside. However, there are plenty overhead resistance if Nasdaq manages to close above 11,478.
11,660 would be key for confirmation of a new uptrend. An uptrend that could be cut short around 12K.
RSI is still showing negative sentiment and still has some way to for before reaching the positive sentiment threshold.
If Nasdaq 100 slides back below 10,962 bear trend resumes for lower lows.

Nasdaq100 d 25oct
Source: Saxo Group

USNAS100 cfd/Nasdaq future seems to establish a very short-term uptrend but key resistance will be at around 11,668. A close above will confirm this. IF the USNAS100  slides basck below 10,891 the bear trend is set to resume.

USNAS100 d 25oct
Source: Saxo Group
Note: Author is holding a short position in USNAS100

Quarterly Outlook

  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd. (Saxo) and the Saxo Bank Group provides execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation. Access and use of this website is subject to: (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; (iii) the Risk Warning; and (iv) any other notice or terms applying to Saxo’s news and research.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer for more details.

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992