Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Technical Update - Free falling Hang Seng and China A50 could drop much lower
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Hang Seng Index (HSI) is dropping like a stone. There is no strong support before around 11,345. Minor support at 13,465. As previously described Hang Seng seems to be unwinding a long-term Shoulder-Head- Shoulder formation with a potential target of 8,500.
RSI is supporting the strong bearish outlook on both short-, medium- and longer-term.
Weekly chart shows how the selling pressure has accelerated pushing the Index out of the falling channel. The lower black line on weekly chart is shifted parallel from the channel. HSI might find some support around that line and the 2.00 projection of the Q2-Q3 correction at around 13,947.
Short-term there is no divergence on RSI indicating lower levels.
If buyers come back in lifting the Index above the upper falling trend on RSI HIS could experience a rebound to around 16K where sellers are likely to regain control. But the likelihood of such a scenario to play out seems slim.
If buyers come back in lifting the Index above the upper falling trend on RSI HIS could experience a rebound to around 16K where sellers are likely to regain control. But the likelihood of such a scenario to play out seems slim.
FTSE China A50 future (A50) has broken below key strong support at 11,498. No strong support until around 10,160 which is also around the 1.764 projection of the Q2-Q3 correction. A50 is likely to test the lower trendline in the falling channel.
No divergence on RSI weekly supporting the picture of lower levels on A50.
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