Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - AEX 25 going vertical. CAC 40 breaking falling trendline. BEL 20 still range bound
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
After closing above 676 and the falling trendline AEX25 has been on fire taking out key resistance at 719. RSI indicates higher levels are likely but a correction around currently levels and down around 700 before uptrend resumes should be expected. 200 SMA provides resistance but a move to test key resistance at 741 is likely. IF closing above the uptrend could be extended to around 770.
CAC 40 broke above its medium-term falling trendline and is set for higher levels to strong resistance at around 6,593. The Index seems to e trading in a steep rising channel. However, a correction down to test the falling (black) trendline is likely before next push higher.
To reverse the trend a close below 6,143 is needed.
BEL 20 is stuck in a sideways range between 3,638 and 3,805. The leading Belgian Index has tried three times to penetrate the upper band but failed to close above. A close above is needed for upside momentum. If BEL 20 closes above next strong resistance is at 3,925 and around 4,043.
Currently, however, with the failed upside break and RSI still being negative, it seems more likely BEL 20 is to test lower band i.e. 3,638. A break below 3,711 could be the signal for that scenario to play out.
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