Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Technical Update - DAX and EuroStoxx 50 rebound could have more legs to go but bear trend likely to resume
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Strong rebound in Equities lifts DAX and Euro Stoxx 50. Rebound could be extended but expect selling pressure to resume. Opening gap from Tuesday is key to observe
DAX has rebounded strongly from lows. DAX formed Monday a Bullish Engulfing bottom and reversal candle indicating a rebound.
DAX has reached 0.382 retracement of the August to October down trend and approx. half of the September down trend. The rebound could continue at bit higher to around 12,915 i.e., the 0.618 retracement.
However, RSI is still showing negative sentiment (hasn’t closed above 60) with no divergence which indicates lower levels below 11,862 is likely.
DAX is likely to slide lower over the next few days and if DAX closes the gap from yesterday selling pressure is likely to accelerate. If that scenario plays out DAX is likely to test lows at 11,862 and most likely take it out.
The down trend picture on both short-term is still intact and will remain so unless DAX closes above 13,564. To reverse the and medium term down trend picture a close above 13,948 is needed
Similar picture on EuroStoxx50. Trading around the 0.382 retracement of the August to October down trend. No divergence on RSI and still negative sentiment. Rebound extend to around 3,581-3,600. However, if EuroStoxx closes that gap from yesterday morning bear trend is to resume.
For the short term down trend to reverse a close above 3,683 is needed.
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