Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
ASM International is trading 8% lower this morning after being rejected at the 200 daily SMA just below the medium-term falling trendline. A trendline ASM needs to close above to reverse the downtrend. A close above 290.65 would confirm short-term uptrend with strong resistance at around 320.
ASM has been in a medium-term down trend since the beginning of 2022 and there is no sign of this to end or reverse – unless the above scenario plays out.
Weekly RSI is showing negative sentiment and no divergence supporting the bearish view that ASM is likely to move lower and perform a lower low below July lows around €193.72. If ASM breaks below 220 that bearish scenario is likely to unfold and ASM could test the weekly 200 SMA and possibly the lower falling trendline on the weekly chart.
Heineken is bouncing after testing March lows around €78. Bottom fishing could lift Heineken shares the next couple of days but if it cannot close the gap up above €86 bear trend remains and could be further fueled if closing below €78.
Heavy volume on down days past few weeks and light volume on up days supports the bearish view. RSI is below 40 i.e., negative sentiment, testing low from September. A close below will further add to the bearish outlook for Heineken
Looking at the weekly chart we can see that Heineken has a history of massive selloffs followed by strong rebounds. But the rebound peaks have been lower the past year signaling medium- to longer term weakness.
RSI has been showing negative sentiment on the weekly since February when It closed below 40 and has since failed to close above 60. So, if Heineken closes below 80.84 on the week and RSI closes below 40 the outlook is confirmed bearish.
For Heineken to change that a close above 92.65 is needed. However, that will most likely just put the share price in neutral. For a medium- to longer-term uptrend to be confirmed a close above 97.26 is needed. A close above the4 upper falling trend line would be first indication of this scenario to play out
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
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