Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - BEL 20 in free fall. AEX25 hovering around key support. CAC40 opening October below its key support
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
AEX25 is dancing around the key support at 632. A close below could fuel a sell-off down to 600 support. RSI is showing minor divergence indicating a minor bounce could be seen. However, there is no divergence on weekly RSI which is below 40 indicating lower levels on AEX index going in to October is likely. To demolish this bearish picture AEX needs to close above 704
BEL20 has reached 2.0 projection of the early September correction. There is no divergence on RSI indicating lower levels are likely.
BEL20 is approaching the strong support at 3,235 and the 0.618 retracement at 3,173. However, with no divergence on weekly RSI BEL20 could drop to the lower end of the consolidation area at around 3K. To reverse this bearish picture BEL20 needs to close above 3,740.
CAC40 has opened the first week of October below key support at 5,755. If CAC40 doesn’t close the week back above that level, it is likely to test the support at around 5,392. If that scenario plays out the leading French Index is likely to drop even further to the 0.618 retracement and strong support at 5,065-5,000 i.e., middle of the consolidation area from 2020.
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