Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
Saxo
Summary: The markets will once again be influenced by politics this week, as we get the results of the first round of the elections in France on Monday. Then, the UK electorate will head to the polls on Thursday July 4th with results expected on Friday. We also have house price data in the UK on Monday and Friday as well as PMI and ISM data coming out of the EU, UK and US throughout the week. The US Non-Farm payrolls data will be released on Friday at 13:30 UK time to round out the macro calendar for the first week of July and the beginning of trading for the 2nd half of 2024.
First round election results (France)
Nationwide House Price Index (UK), BoE Consumer Credit (UK), M4 Money Supply (UK), Mortgage Approvals (UK), PMI Manufacturing (UK, EU, US), Construction Spending (US), ISM Manufacturing (US), ISM Prices Paid (US)
CPI Inflation Flash (EU), Unemployment Rate (EU), Auto Sales (US), Job Openings (US), API Crude Stock (US)
PMI Composite (UK), PMI Services (UK), HCOB Services (EU), Producer Price Index (EU), MBA Mortgage Applications (US), Continuing Claims (US), Initial Jobless Claims (US), PMI Composite (US), PMI Services (US), Factory Orders (US), ISM Prices Paid (US), ISM Services (US), Crude Oil Inventories (US), FOMC Interest Rate Minutes (US)
UK general election (click here to read a great content piece by Charu)
US national holiday (Independence day)
Election results (UK), Halifax House Price Index (UK), Retail Sales (EU), Non-Farm Payrolls (US), Unemployment Rate (US)
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