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Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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London Quick Take – 19 June – Stocks Slip as US Edges Closer to Iran War
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.
The FTSE 100 slid about 0.5% in early trade as investors ponder the likely implications of US involvement in the Israel-Iran war, while the UK is also looking at providing support to its American allies. Again oil majors are providing a natural hedge to the FTSE with BP and Shell leading the handful of risers this morning. Yields ticked up and bond proxies fell along with housebuilders.
European indices are broadly lower with the DAX off three-quarters of one percent and looking for a downside break of its 50-day line. The risk being priced I guess is a spiral and the US getting sucked into a conflict in the Middle East which never go well. Investors though are notoriously bad at pricing geopolitics.
Last night the Fed left rates on hold and the Bank of England is expected to do the same later. US stock markets were basically flat on the day after the Fed kept its cards close to its chest, while futures are pointing to a weaker open later as European indices slip at the open on Thursday. Oil prices are a bit firmer but in the middle of the range since Israel first hit Iran, whilst gold moved lower as the dollar gained ground in the wake of the Fed meeting.
Mixed messages from the Fed reflect the uncertainty and different ways to see the macro picture, partly because of the Middle East but also because of the overhanging issues of trade, tariffs and the big beautiful tax bill. The Fed kept interest rates on hold but signalled two more cuts to come this year even as it sounded cautious on the inflation outlook. GDP forecasts lower, inflation forecasts up. But there is a split on the committee – seven policymakers see no cuts this year, while ten forecast two or more.
This morning Switzerland’s central bank cut rates to zero...disinflation is happening but the Fed and UK have a more complex outlook.
Indeed, the Bank of England is all but certain to leave rates on hold later today. Should the BoE be acting more vigorously? Inflation is coming down and the labour market is cracking – and at 4.25% policy is very restrictive and does not need to be so restrictive. The BoE will stick to its gradualism but could ultimately go deeper than the market thinks.
Shell rallied again as crude ticked up – CEO Wael Sawan noting risks to the shipping lanes in the Middle East at an industry conference in which he also said the company was in no rush to make acquisitions...BP takeover off the table then?
Finally, some interesting moves with Visa, Mastercard, and PayPal down over 4% after the Senate passed the stablecoin act; Coinbase surged 16% on regulatory optimism. US cash equities are closed for a holiday today.
London Quick Take – 19 June – Stocks Slip as US Edges Closer to Iran War
Key Points
- US moving closer to Iran strike, UK mulls help
- Fed leaves rates on hold, signals caution on inflation
- Bank of England set to leave rates on hold at 4.25%
- Shell CEO says not in hurry to make acquisitions
Geopolitics is still front and centre for markets even as we are in the midst of a busy central bank week. The Israel-Iran conflict is now being viewed by investors through the lens of whether the US gets involved or not. President Trump says that he “may or may not” strike Iran, but the mood music seems to be martial in its drumbeat.
The FTSE 100 slid about 0.5% in early trade as investors ponder the likely implications of US involvement in the Israel-Iran war, while the UK is also looking at providing support to its American allies. Again oil majors are providing a natural hedge to the FTSE with BP and Shell leading the handful of risers this morning. Yields ticked up and bond proxies fell along with housebuilders.
European indices are broadly lower with the DAX off three-quarters of one percent and looking for a downside break of its 50-day line. The risk being priced I guess is a spiral and the US getting sucked into a conflict in the Middle East which never go well. Investors though are notoriously bad at pricing geopolitics.
Last night the Fed left rates on hold and the Bank of England is expected to do the same later. US stock markets were basically flat on the day after the Fed kept its cards close to its chest, while futures are pointing to a weaker open later as European indices slip at the open on Thursday. Oil prices are a bit firmer but in the middle of the range since Israel first hit Iran, whilst gold moved lower as the dollar gained ground in the wake of the Fed meeting.
Mixed messages from the Fed reflect the uncertainty and different ways to see the macro picture, partly because of the Middle East but also because of the overhanging issues of trade, tariffs and the big beautiful tax bill. The Fed kept interest rates on hold but signalled two more cuts to come this year even as it sounded cautious on the inflation outlook. GDP forecasts lower, inflation forecasts up. But there is a split on the committee – seven policymakers see no cuts this year, while ten forecast two or more.
Powell sounded in no rush to act. “For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policies,” he said.
This morning Switzerland’s central bank cut rates to zero...disinflation is happening but the Fed and UK have a more complex outlook.
Indeed, the Bank of England is all but certain to leave rates on hold later today. Should the BoE be acting more vigorously? Inflation is coming down and the labour market is cracking – and at 4.25% policy is very restrictive and does not need to be so restrictive. The BoE will stick to its gradualism but could ultimately go deeper than the market thinks.
Companies
After that shocker of a jobs report Hays this morning reports trouble in the labour market will push net fees down 9% this year - shares are down 14% this morning. Meanwhile Whitbread shares were down about 2.5% or so after group hotel sales fell 2% amid weakness in its core UK market that offset the continued expansion in Germany.
Shell rallied again as crude ticked up – CEO Wael Sawan noting risks to the shipping lanes in the Middle East at an industry conference in which he also said the company was in no rush to make acquisitions...BP takeover off the table then?
Finally, some interesting moves with Visa, Mastercard, and PayPal down over 4% after the Senate passed the stablecoin act; Coinbase surged 16% on regulatory optimism. US cash equities are closed for a holiday today.
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