Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investor Content Strategist
The FTSE 100’s winning streak continues with the index jumping to a fresh record high this morning at about 9,120. Earlier the S&P 500 closed up 0.78% for a new all-time closing high 6,358, while the Nasdaq composite finished above 21,000 for the first time.
Hopeful noises on trade with the EU and the US heading towards a Japan-style 15% tariff rate is enough to support the risk-on mood. Gold has come off sharply the last two sessions and global stocks are firming. Meanwhile President Trump is going to visit the Federal Reserve today in an unusual move that keeps attention on whether he will fire chair Jay Powell. Treasury yields ticked up.
Tesla is transitioning from an “EV leader to AI and robotics leader” but could be in for “a few rough quarters”, according to CEO Elon Musk. Shares in the company fell more than 4% after-hours following a disappointing quarterly earnings update – automotive revenues fell 16% while adjusted earnings were down 23%. EPS at $0.40 missed expectations for around $0.42. Gross margin held up a touch better than expected at 17.2% vs estimated 16.5%, a decline from 18% a year before. We knew the automotive business was going to be tough, but Musk’s comments did not really do enough for the market.
Alphabet as the other member of the Mag 7 was a lot stronger. It beat earnings expectations and raised its spending forecast. The company increased its capital expenditure forecast for 2025 to $85bn, up $10bn from its February forecast...good news for the chip stocks. The message from the quarter was that it’s spending more on AI but also earning more from AI. Overall revenues rose 14%, above the 10.9% expected. The stock, which had been bid up into earnings, initially dipped but later firmed up almost 2%.
Lloyds statutory profit before tax rose 5% to £3.5bn for the first half of 2025, as revenues rose 6% year-on-year to £9.4bn. Net interest income rose by 5% to £6.7 billion, with net interest margins climbed to 3.04% from 2.94%. Lots to like but management warn of economic “deterioration”.
Some notable gainers this morning across Europe - Deutsche Bank +5.9% after Q2 earnings beat that adds to a strong year. BE Semiconductor +5.5% saying second half forecast has improved significantly. Reckitt Benckiser up +9% on better outlook. Galderma +6.5% as drug Nemluvio beats expectations.
ITV jumped over 8% as ad revenues fell less than expected and it’s getting a boost from the England women’s football team. Pre-tax profits fell 44% year-on-year to £99mn in the first half, with total advertising revenues down 7% to £824mn. It’s a tough comparison with last year due to the men’s Euros...but they’re seeing uplift from the Lionesses this year. Content business looks good with guidance reiterated.
Vodafone reported a 3.9% increase in revenues, with service revenue up 5.5%, driven by good growth in Germany. BT shares were up 5% despite a 10% decline in profits.
Airtel Africa , one of the year’s big gainers, rose 5% after it reported growth in customer numbers and a 30% increase in quarterly earnings before nasties.
Finally, meme stocks are back – Krispy Kreme, GoPro, Kohl’s are now some of the names that are attracting attention. These are super volatile. Quantumscape is another – down 7% yesterday and 4% after-hours following earnings.