Key points

• Quantum computing stocks have been volatile since spiking last year

• Performance metrics among the pureplay quantum stocks are diverging

• Picking winners and losers remains very challenging

This content is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

2025 was supposed to be the breakthrough year for quantum computing. But it’s been a roller coaster ride for investors. With several of the best-known pure-play quantum stocks finished with their first quarter earnings, we thought it a good moment to reassess the landscape for the sector.

Quantum stocks have had a tough ride

Quantum computing stocks IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) and Quantum Computing (QUBT) rode a wave of hype after Google announced a major quantum chip breakthrough in December.

But 2025 has been tougher. Stocks of all four plunged in January after Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said that the technology won't be "very useful" for 15-30 years.

But since then Nvidia has doubled-down on quantum computing – which could be a cornerstone technology for AI scaling – with a new focus on quantum technology.

Huang admitted he was wrong about the timeline at Nvidia’s Quantum Day event in March. The company also announced a new facility in Boston to enable quantum companies to collaborate with Harvard and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The plant will include several racks of the company’s Blackwell AI servers.

Meanwhile, Microsoft followed with a major quantum leap of its own with the Majorana 1 Chip, a quantum processor powered by a Topological Core, claiming it can scale to a million qubits on a single chip, which is seen as a key threshold for quantum computers to deliver real-world solutions. 

Quantum Stocks Q1 Sit-Rep

Rigetti Computing posted total revenues of $1.5 million in its fiscal first quarter, down 35% sequentially and well short of the consensus $2.6mn. Share fell sharply on Tuesday after the results and are down about 48% YTD but RGTI rallied around 10% on Wednesday with Saxo clients showing interest.

D-Wave Quantum posted record Q1 results with a 508% rise in revenues increase, but a sharp decline in bookings is clouding the long-term outlook. Revenues rose from $2.5mn a year before to $15mn in Q1, but bookings were down 64% on the year to $1.6mn.

D-Wave reported a consolidated cash balance of $304.3 million as of March 31, 2025, a record quarter-end balance for the company, which says it believes is “sufficient to fund the company to profitability”.

However, the results show the high cost of research and development in this space – trailling 12-mont losses of over $200mn on almost $11mn of revenues. Nevertheless, its shares are up 13% YTD.

IonQ recognised revenue of $7.6 million for the first quarter, which is above the midpoint of the previously provided range. Shares are down  22% YTD.

Quantum Computing reports earnings on Thursday after the market close. Its shares are down over 50% YTD.

Long Term View

Quantum Computing stocks are a long way from realising investors’ hopes for their earnings.

Rigetti CEO Subodh Kulkarni reiterated this point on the earnings call, saying “we’re four to five years away from quantum advantage”.

These are tiny, high risk stocks. But even BlackRock is paying attention. In its recent filing for its iShares Bitcoin Trust, the firm noted that quantum computing could disrupt Bitcoin’s cryptographic backbone, though this was a risk disclosure that usually tries to capture all possible scenarios.

Quantum ETF

A quantum computing stocks ETF – the Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) – tracks the performance of a number of quantum stocks, but with less reliance on some of these tiny pure-play names.

It aims to track the performance of the BlueStar Machine Learning and Quantum Computing Index (BQTUM). Largest holdings include D-Wave Quantum, Palantir, Alibaba, Nec Corp and Orange, Ntt Data Group and Rigetti, as well as Kla Corp, Fujitsu and Nokia.

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