Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Germany's Dax tests crucial support
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
An examination of the Dax chart shows that we've reached the 1,618% Fiboinacci projection of what looks like a double top pattern bouncing off 12.100, which was also the body gap back in April.
The lower shadow on today’s candle tells us that buyers are coming in and trying to regain control. If the Dax closes here or higher today, I believe we will see more upside in the next couple of days, maybe trying to get back up to 12.500 where it will face resistance.
However, RSI is bearish and the Bollinger Bands® are still expanding, indicating that the downtrend is not yet over. If buyers lose power expect a few more days of selling before a (minor) rebound.
Medium to longer term
Weekly chart below: The Dax is close to testing the 0.764 retracement and the rising trend-line of the past two years. Weekly RSI is bearish since it has managed to break back above 60. MACD also seems to be breaking over bearish.
Conclusion: A bounce in an effort to get back above 12.500 could be short-lived. The picture is bearish. For the indicators to turn bullish the minimum requirement would be a close above 12.800.
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