Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investor Content Strategist
It’s a monster week for earnings on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, four Magnificent 7 stocks – Apple, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft - report earnings this week, while we also have Boeing, Ford, UnitedHealth, Coinbase and Strategy on the slate.
In the UK we have several of the largest and most-widely held names on the FTSE 100 due to report earnings.
Tuesday, 29 July
Barclays, HY 25 interim results: Positive updates from NatWest and Lloyds last week bode well, whilst the positive read across from US banks’ trading revenues may be seen in the UK bank’s investment banking division. The City expects just over £7bn in revenues and £1.53bn in net income.
AstraZeneca, HY 25 interim results: Just announced $50bn investment in the US to stave off tariff threat, but investors will be looking at the quarterly sales numbers and guidance for the second half of the year. The company said it expects the investment in the US to help it achieve its goal of $80bn in total revenue by 2030, so we shouldn’t expect any change to this medium-term outlook. At its Q1 report management reiterated guidance for high single-digit percentage growth in revenues and low double-digit percentage growth in core earnings per share.
Wednesday, 30 July
HSBC, HY 25 interim results: Q1 HSBC posted profit before tax down 25% on a year-on-year basis, while revenue fell 15%. Look for updates its possible sale of its Australian retail banking business, as well as something around the private credit business and more broadly around the impact of tariffs and US-China relations. Look for positivity around its Asian wealth management business, but interest rate cuts in Hong Kong could affect net interest income. For Q2, net profit is expected to decline 17% from a year earlier to $5.29 billion.
Glencore, HY 25 production report: Shares have had a tough time in 2025, down around 14%, but management may signal the start of a bounce back on higher expected production in the second half of the year, driven by copper output, which could materially increase earnings at the miner over the next 2-3 years. Also watch out for any talk about demerging the coal business – half-year results are due on 6 August.
BAE Systems, HY 25 interim results: One of the major winners from the UK’s Strategic Defence and Security Review and European promises to spend more on defence. In May the company reiterated its full-year guidance of sales growth of 7-9% and EBIT growth of 8-10%.
GSK, Q2 results: The drugmaker hits earnings after being dealt a severe below last week from the US FDA’s Oncology Drugs Advisory Committee, which decided against approving its blood cancer drug Blenrep in two separate phase III trials. This is a major blow and shares sold off sharply but the stock has since recovered much of the lost ground. Blenrep is just one of 14 potential drugs that GSK thinks could be worth £2bn in sales and help it reach its goal of £40bn in annual sales by 2031. Look for any commentary around the rest for a guide – the loss of Blenrep US sales could be worth £1bn of that £40bn target.
Thursday, 31 July
Shell, Q2 trading update: The oil major is on tap with full Q2 results having recently lowered the top end of its production guidance for its natural gas division to 900,000 to 940,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) for the quarter. The City expects pre-tax profit of $5.5bn, a decline from $7.4bn a year before and $9bn reported in the first quarter.
Rolls-Royce, HY 25 interim results: One of the most popular stocks on the FTSE, shares have been on a massive rally thanks to an internal turnaround strategy, surging demand in aerospace and expectations for permanently higher defence budgets. Investors can probably expect a positive update again, but the question is whether with the stock having gained so much ground lately can we get a positive surprise to catalyse further gains? On air travel, expect flying hours to be 10% above 2019 levels, and we could get more updates on its Small Modular Reactor plans, which it recently won backing from the UK government to develop.
Unilever, HY 25 interim results: Could see organic sales growth of more than 3.5% in the first half. In April management reaffirmed full-year guidance, saying they still expect underlying sales growth of 3-5%, and considered tariffs as managed. It reported underlying sales growth of 3.0%, with volume growth of 1.3% and price of 1.7%, though turnover was lower due to disposals. Ice cream business separation remains on track and buybacks continue. It was a positive update on the whole but nothing to set the pulses racing. Look to see whether the new CEO has a bold plan to divest the food business – one top shareholder has suggested Unilever look at selling its €13.4bn-revenue food business. That shareholder, Artisan Partners, led a successful activist campaign at Danone.
Next, Q2 trading update: Next keeps on delivering but we await to see whether the retail bellwether enjoyed a boost from the hot weather or not. Recent data showed clothing industry sales down and Next already enjoyed a big uplift in sales due to the weather. Next delivered a strong Q1 with £55m in extra sales compared to forecast but largely stuck to full-year guidance as it reckons this was a pull-forward in demand due to some warmer weather. Full price sales over the quarter rose by 11.4%, almost twice as fast as the 6.5% expected. It’s upped the full price sales target for the year to +6% from +5%, but stuck to total group sales of £6.6bn for the year. Group profit is now seen at £1.080bn from prior guidance of £1.066bn - a marginal increase of £14mn. Next is always super cautious so it’s no surprise management is not really upgrading the forecast for the year but I would not bet against it beating the target again.