Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Energy and metals meet national security interests
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Summary: The war in Ukraine is turbocharging big changes around globalisation with developed countries taking actions to define sectors such as energy, metals, military, cyber security, and food production as national security interest. Along this trend the Biden administration is rumoured to invoke the Defense Production Act so that domestic production of critical materials for batteries and electric vehicles can be expanded and prioritized. We take a look at what it means and what companies will potentially benefit from this policy change which is effective industrial policy.
US administration wants to expand domestic production of critical metals
This week have written about the importance of commodities for the world and investment portfolios in the years ahead, and how the war in Ukraine will turbocharge a reconfiguration of global supply chains with Vietnam as one of the big winners. Along those two vectors, the Biden administration is rumoured to invoke the Defense Production Act, which goes back to the Korean War, to mobilize domestic production of key materials for batteries/energy stocks, magnets and electric vehicles. These metals include lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and manganese.
If the Defense Production Act is invoked by the Biden Administration is would mean a big policy shift and the early contours of industrial policies coming back in the developed world after decades of blind trust and hope in globalization without thinking about the fragility it has created. Electrification of heating through air-to-water heat pumps and transportation through electric vehicles are part of the green transformation trend and one of the biggest changes to society since digitalization changed all industries in the span of just two decades. The green transformation combined with urbanization and global supply chains being changed under national security interests will cause structural inflation in the developed world. To understand how fast electrification in transportation is going look at the battery EV delivery figures below and watch the lithium price explosion. Demand is outstripping supply by a large factor.
The list below highlights some North America listed companies that have more or less exposure to this potential policy change:
- Albemarle
- Lithium Americas
- Livent
- Standard Lithium
- Sigma Lithium
- Piedmont Lithium
- GrafTech
- Sherritt International
- Ferroglobe
- MP Materials
- Lundin Mining
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2026
-
-
Outrageous Predictions
A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral... -
Outrageous Predictions
Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril... -
Outrageous Predictions
Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash... -
Outrageous Predictions
SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-... -
Outrageous Predictions
Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w... -
Outrageous Predictions
Britain’s Great EU Backdoor Return
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Faced with rolling fiscal, economic, trade and political crises the UK government sneaks back into t... -
Outrageous Predictions
Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord...