Earnings Watch, steelmakers on a tear, and vaccine IP Earnings Watch, steelmakers on a tear, and vaccine IP Earnings Watch, steelmakers on a tear, and vaccine IP

Earnings Watch, steelmakers on a tear, and vaccine IP

Equities 8 minutes to read
Peter Garnry

Chief Investment Strategist

Summary:  This week's earnings are all about Chinese technology earnings with the key earnings to watch being Alibaba on Thursday and JD.com on Friday. We also discuss the extraordinary rally in global steelmakers being close to overtake e-commerce stocks as the pandemic winner as government stimulus and low interest rates have caused a demand surge for steel. Finally, we discuss the Biden administration's remarks last week about waiving the intellectual property rights on Covid-19 vaccines.

Earnings releases are continuing this week at a blistering pace with focus shifting away from the US towards Europe and especially Chinese technology earnings as data shows that Ark Invest has increased their allocation to Chinese companies such as Alibaba and JD.com. Q1 earnings have been strong and global corporate earnings are well ahead of pre pandemic levels with the biggest recent surprise being global earnings growth outside broader US equities and US technology sector. The rally in commodities and higher interest rates are driving the current rotation out of growth and into value stocks which benefits Europe and emerging markets on a relative basis.

The list below shows the most important earnings to watch this week and the ones in bold are those that can move market sentiment or at least their industry group. The key earnings day will be on Thursday with many key earnings in the technology industry from both China and the US. Airbnb will be interesting because many travel related stocks have not been aggressively bid during Q1 as many of the companies in this industry have signaled slower rebound pace in travel activity than expected a few months ago. In terms of electric vehicles demand out of China Li Auto and Xpeng will be key to watch, and especially for those with exposure in Tesla as China is the US carmaker’s most important market. Today, Panasonic has already reported its FY21 earnings (ending 31 March), which we cover in today’s Saxo Market Call podcast, showing strong outlook for its barriers under the Automotive segment.

  • Monday: ITOCHU, Panasonic, Duke Energy, Air Products and Chemicals, Marriott International, BioNTech
  • Tuesday: KBC Group, E.ON, SoftBank Corp, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Nissan Motor, Electronic Arts, Palantir Technologies, Unity Software
  • Wednesday: Verbund, Fortum, EDF, Allianz, Merck, Bayer, RWE, Toyota Motor, SoftBank Group, Compass Group, Iberdrola, Li Auto
  • Thursday: Brookfield Asset Management, Alibaba, Walt Disney, Bilibili, Xpeng, Airbnb, DoorDash
  • Friday: Honda Motor, JD.com

Steelmakers are almost a bigger winner than e-commerce

As we talk about in our podcast today, iron ore prices were limit up in China today and it seems the demand is not only speculative but that of real demand, but even more importantly, steelmakers are able to pass on the rising input costs to customers. This paves the way for even higher iron ore prices. Global steelmakers are up 248% since 23 March 2020 compared to 276% for our e-commerce basket suggesting that the big winners of the pandemic might soon be shifting from the digital to non-digital parts of the economy. Who would have thought? The chart below shows global steelmakers’ total return performance relative to that of the MSCI World.

S&P 1200 Global Steel Sub-Industry vs MSCI World Index (total return in USD)

Source: Saxo Group

Will public health crisis squash private property rights?

Last week was brutal for vaccine winning companies such as Curavac, Moderna, and BioNTech, as the Biden administration announced last Wednesday that it supports waiving intellectual property protections for Covid-19 vaccines. It would correctly speed up production, but it would also undermine a key leap in medical technology and economically punish the intellectual breakthrough of the biotechnology companies. With BioNTech alone expected to profit $5.75bn in 2021 the political system has these companies on their target as the vaccine rollout as been slow. Merkel’s government has rightly said that a waiver is not the right solution, and we guess the US government is playing a political game to get better terms from BioNTech and Moderna. Our thinking is that the model going forward could be something like forcing these companies to lower their prices, but then helping them get public subsidies for expanding production capacity. This model would protect the mRNA IP which these companies can use for other key drugs in the future, but also ensure lower prices for the developing world and faster production ramp-up.

Source: Saxo Group

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992