Summary: The prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum have increased by 38% and 36%, respectively, year to date. The higher prices have not caused exchange balances to increase, as exchange inflow has been somewhat limited, potentially indicating that few holders are inclined to sell at these levels. Exchange-traded crypto products had a high inflow in January, potentially indicating that traditional investors have lightly returned to crypto.
Immediately upon interacting with a blockchain, much data becomes publicly available on a public ledger. Analyzing this data may provide crypto traders and investors with helpful insight into the present state of the market. In “The state of crypto”, we take a look at the most important metrics to observe the market based on transaction and trading activity. Our main focus is the two largest cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum, and we divide the metrics into short-term and long-term indicators. You find the report for the last month here.
The prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum have increased by around 38% and 36% year to date, respectively, as the risk-on sentiment was revised across asset classes, following wide-ranging confidence that the FED and other central banks sooner rather than later put an end to interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening.
It appears that the substantial upward price move between the 10th to 14th of January caused some holders to deposit Bitcoin and Ethereum to exchanges likely to take profit, given that the exchange inflow surged in that period. Since this spike, the daily inflow has been on a constant downward trajectory, although the prices have increased further since the surge in mid-January. This may indicate that weak hands have already taken profit, potentially indicating limited resistance at these levels, as stronger hands are not interested in selling at these prices. As a matter of fact, long-term holders did not attract much attention on-chain in January, as not much dormant supply moved, stressing that the price increases are not of importance to them.
The limited exchange inflow has caused the total exchange balance to decrease slightly in the past couple of weeks, with the latter often indicating less willingness to sell crypto. To be fair, though, it may merely be a continuation of the outflow trend of the last couple of months in which holders have minimized counterparty risks by withdrawing from exchanges, upon the collapse of FTX.
The price surges in January have considerably improved the average profit or loss of Bitcoin and Ethereum holders, given that the MVRV ratio of both cryptocurrencies is now closer to 0. The greater profit or loss may provide holders with much needed-relief but it may also cause some to close positions, as they are closer to their entry.
In January, exchange-traded crypto products ended a negative period by encountering a substantial inflow equal to $154mn until the 27th of January, of which $124.8mn was inflow to Bitcoin and $9.1mn was inflow to Ethereum. Similar to much of 2022, this once again expresses that Bitcoin is more popular to hold as an exchange-traded product rather than Ether. The great inflow into exchange-traded crypto products indicates that more traditional investors want to have exposure to crypto, yet it is potentially merely an expression of fear of missing out.
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
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