Log in Open account
United Kingdom
CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
Show more
CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX, or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Losses can exceed deposits on some products.
Show less

WCU: Gold rally pauses as stocks soldier on

Commodities 10 minutes to read
Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary:  Risk sentiment remains in force on the back of policy updates from the US and China, but signs of a global slowdown are present on the margins; the Bloomberg Commodity index rose for a third week.

The strong beginning to 2019 across financial markets and commodities has extended into its third week. Dovish comments from the US Federal Open Market Commission, rate and tax cut announcements from China, and raised expectations of a breakthrough in the trade talks between the two have all helped fire up the markets so far this month. 

Despite this, the emerging optimism is still being driven by expectations more than facts at this point, and dark clouds are still hanging over the market. Global growth is slowing and the tighter financial conditions always show up in the frontier of growth markets, private equity, venture capital and discretionary consumption before going mainstream. All these segments have shown weakness over the past three months. 

Adding to the unease was the release of OECD’s composite leading indicator which in November fell to 99.3, its lowest in November since October 2012. In the last 50 years, according to Reuters, whenever the index has fallen below 99.3 there has almost always been a recession in the United States.

The US the economy is likely to slow down as the extended government shutdown has left 800,000 workers unpaid for almost a month. In China a recent deterioration in economic data such as the worst decline in car sales since 2005 have seen the People’s Bank of China and government stepping up their efforts to stabilise a slowing economy. Tax cuts have been promised while additional liquidity has been pumped into the system ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. 
Bloomberg Commodity Index
The Bloomberg commodity index, which tracks a basket of major commodities with equal exposure to energy, metals and agriculture, rose for a third week. The energy sector was once again the main driver. But while crude oil had been doing the heavy lifting in recent weeks as it recovered from the Q4'18 drubbing, it was natural gas that grabbed the baton last week on a renewed cold winter weather scare. 

Industrial metals saw broad-based gains in response to trade talk hopes and the aforementioned policy actions in China. Precious metals, meanwhile, took a breather as the risk-on move sapped some of the recent safe-haven demand. The grain sector was flat with elevated US stocks not yet meeting strong enough export demand to see a meaningful reduction, especially in soybeans.

Palladium, up 70% since the August low, broke above $1,400/oz for the first time, thereby continuing its gravity-defying rally on a near perfect combination of an acute shortage of supply, positive momentum and low liquidity. Signs that global vehicle sales are slowing have so far done little to dampen the demand from automobile producers, who need the metal to meet more stringent emission controls. 

In natural gas, the winter roller-coaster continues as shifting weather outlooks across the US continue to challenge traders. Changing short-term weather forecasts, which tend to be updated on weekends, have so far led to three occasions since November where the market has gapped higher or lower the following Monday. Record and rising production basically poses the biggest challenge to bulls as cold weather needs to be persistent to avoid renewed price weakness. 
Natural gas
Source: Saxo Bank
HG Copper traded in New York rose above $2.70/lb and LME above $6000 tonne for the first time this year. Overall, the metal remains stuck in the $2.55/lb to $2.85/lb range that has persisted since last July. Another set of trade talks is set to take place at the end of this month, with China’s Vice Premier visiting the US.

While trade talks are likely to be the main source of inspiration in the short term, we maintain a constructive view, not least given the additional stimulus measures announced by China at a time of tightening fundamentals as seen through lower inventories and the prospect of supply being lower than demand. 

Crude oil gains extended into a third week as the sector continued to recover from the Q4'18 price collapse. The general pick-up in risk appetite, as well as production cuts from the Opec+ group combining with steady forecasts of demand growth, has been the main driver behind the recovery. 

This past week Opec, the Energy Information Administration, and the International Energy Agency all released their monthly oil market reports for January. They all highlighted the pre-emptive December cuts made by Opec ahead of the January start of agreed production cuts with non-Opec producers. Russia went the other way, and according to the IEA increased production to a new record near 11.5 million barrels/day, some 300,000 b/d above the level it has agreed to come down to over the coming months.

The IEA, just like the two others, maintained its outlook for demand with lower prices acting as a bulwark against the current downturn in global economic activity. 
Crude oil

With the Opec+ group of nations doing their best to curb supply, the demand side remains the key area of uncertainty. Consequently, the main focus and price driver at this stage remains macro-economic developments as seen through the performances of stocks and corporate bond yields.

According to our calculations, the 30-day rolling correlation between WTI crude oil and the S&P 500 future is currently at its highest since 2011. On that basis, watch stock market developments more than anything else at this stage.

WTI and Brent crude have both settled into their November to December consolidation ranges which for WTI is between $50 and $55/b and $57.50 to $64/b for Brent as per the chart below.

Brent crude
Source: Saxo Bank
Gold and silver have both managed to hold onto the strong gains they recorded during December when US stocks witnessed their worst month since the early 1930s. This came despite emerging headwinds from the continued recovery across riskier assets, including stocks. The table below gives a clear picture of how the tailwind from developments across other markets have faded into January after providing strong support during December. 

The fact that gold has managed to hold onto most of its gains despite these developments gives an indication of the continued appetite for the yellow metal, both as a hedge against renewed weakness across other markets but also to counter increased political turbulence. Rising populism, declining leadership quality and fractious relationships between key global players all give reasons to be careful and seek protection. 

This development helps to explain why gold is not being sold when other assets rally. A hedge, such as gold, is one you are happy to lose money on when other assets rise in order to own it when they don’t. Again, the table below shows how that played out during December. 

While total holdings in bullion-backed ETFs have reached a five-year high, we have been left in the blind when it comes to speculative positions held by hedge funds. During the shutdown of the US federal government, the Commitments of Traders report will not be published. No report has been issued by the CFTC since the week of December 18. 
Precious metals
We maintain a constructive outlook for gold but with other asset classes seeing demand, investors may need to be patient. Using Fibonacci’s much-used retracement theory a correction to $1,246/oz would be seen as a weak correction within the current uptrend. 
Gold
Source: Saxo Bank

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
    Read full article
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Read full article
  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
    Read full article
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
    Read full article
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Read full article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
    Read full article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
    Read full article
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
    Read full article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
    Read full article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
    Read full article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom
Products & pricing
Platforms
Accounts & service
General
Other
Legal

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992