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Technical Update - Brent and WTI crude oil bouncing from support but could resume downtrend
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Brent and WTI crude oil bounced from key support but seems to be running out of steam. Down trend could resume and support could again come under pressure. Where to next if taken out?
Short- and medium-term technical outlook
Brent Crude oil seems to be rejected at the 0.382 retracement of the April sell-off at around 77.46.
Trend is down on both short and medium- term.
Weekly chart shows how 200 weekly Moving Average is a strong support currently just above 70 USD.
IF Brent closes below 70 medium-term downtrend has resumed and a sell-off down to support at around 64.97. But a spike down to the 0.618 retracement of the 2020-2022 Bull market at around 63.02 could be seen. That level is also the 1.382 projection of the Q2 2023 correction at 63.48.
If Brent closes below 70 RSI will also close back below 40 threshold adding to the bearish picture. If Brent is closing a week below 64.97 there could be further downside to 59-50
To reverse the short-term bearish trend a close above 83.06 is needed. To reverse the medium-term trend a close above 87.50 is needed.
WTI Crude oil bounced from March spike down and now seems to be rejected at the 0.50 retracement of the April sell-off at 73.61. RSI is still in negative sentiment and sellers could resume control.
Medium-term WTI seems to be in a limbo. It did perform a higher high April but RSI is still in negative sentiment. If WTI closes below 63.69 next support is at around 57.25 If that support is taken out a sell-off down to around 45 could be seen.
To reverse the short-term bearish trend a close above 76.92 is needed. For WTI to confirm a bullish trend medium-term a close above 83.53 is needed.
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