Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Gold struggling to reach 2K but has potential to 2,070
Silver rejected at key resistance at 23.78
Copper testing key resistance at 382.20
Strong bounce in Platinum off historic lows. Was that the bottom. Next few weeks could be decisive
Gold XAUUSD is once again testing the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at 1,992. A close above will pave the way above 2,000, and a move to 1.382 projection at around 2,039 seems likely. However, a move to the 1.618 projection at 2,058 and even to May 2023 peak at around 2,078 should not be ruled out.
RSI is showing positive sentiment with no divergence supporting the bullish scenario.
To demolish and reverse the bullish trend a close below 1,931 is needed
Silver XAGUSD has after several attempts failed to close above key resistance at around 23.78 and above the upper falling trendline. In the process Silver has formed a top and reversal like pattern indicating a setback could be seen.
RSI is however, showing positive sentiment indicating Silver is likely to break higher but it will not be without a struggle.
A close above 23.78 is needed for Silver to push higher towards resistance at around 25.24 and 26.
Platinum XPTUSD has bounced to the 0.786 Fibo retracement and falling trendline .
RSI is at the time of writing being rejected at the 60 threshold. If RSI cannot close above 60 Platinum is likely to slide back
If Platinum is closing back below its 55 DMA the bearish trend is likely to resume.
If Platinum can close above 943.20 a swift move to strong resistance at around 992 is in the cards
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
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