Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Metals have been in a corrective phase for the past few weeks but after bouncing from key supports the correction could be over. Jury's still out however, and Strength Indicator on Gold and Silver still indicates lower levels. Copper looks the better of the of three
Gold XAUUSD is testing the 0.382 retracement at 1,828 a few cents above support at around 1,825.
RSI is below 40 threshold i.e., in negative sentiment indicating lower levels.
Bollinger bands are expanding further adding to the bearish scenario.
Gold could drop to support at around 1,768 but needs to close below 1,825 to extend the correction.
100 and 200 MA’s will provide support.
If Gold crawls back above 1,870 it could be an indication the correction is over and Gold will resume to uptrend if moving back above 1,890.
Silver XAGUSD is dropping lower after breaking support at around 22. RSI is bearish indicating lower levels are likely, and a sell-off down to the 0.618 retracement and support around 20.55 could be seen. Minor support at 21.25 seems to hold for now
If Silver moves back above 22.60 it could get upside traction to 23.10 which is needed to move back above for Silver to resume uptrend.
Copper has dipped below 400 and seems to bounce above the 0.618 retracement of January strong bullish move at 395, and the lower rising trendline.
RSI is still bullish bouncing from the 40 threshold.
A close below 395 and RSI below 40 could fuel further selling down to 380-370.
For Copper to resume uptrend a close above 412 is needed.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
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