Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Copper. Massive sell-off in Copper past few weeks and close to test medium term strong key support at around 412-400. A minor bounce should be expected from here. Possibly back to around 430-440. However, a Daily close below 400 can fuel further sell-offs down to around 360-350.
Iron Ore formed a Double Top like pattern with a potential price target between 128 and 120. The pattern was confirmed with Friday’s heavy sell-off taking the Iron Ore below key support at 143.23
Followed through during Monday trading pushing below what seems to be the Bear/Bull Pivot level around 132.60 and below the falling 200 daily SMA.
RSI below 40 with no divergence and Bollinger bands expanding. All is set for lower levels . No strong support before around 107.80.
Some Pullbacks in an effort to test Bull/Bear Pivot level should be expected but Bulls are not likely to be successful in pulling Iron Ore back above the Pivot and less likely to pull it back above 146.60 which put the scenario on neutral.
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
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