Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Copper. Massive sell-off in Copper past few weeks and close to test medium term strong key support at around 412-400. A minor bounce should be expected from here. Possibly back to around 430-440. However, a Daily close below 400 can fuel further sell-offs down to around 360-350.
Iron Ore formed a Double Top like pattern with a potential price target between 128 and 120. The pattern was confirmed with Friday’s heavy sell-off taking the Iron Ore below key support at 143.23
Followed through during Monday trading pushing below what seems to be the Bear/Bull Pivot level around 132.60 and below the falling 200 daily SMA.
RSI below 40 with no divergence and Bollinger bands expanding. All is set for lower levels . No strong support before around 107.80.
Some Pullbacks in an effort to test Bull/Bear Pivot level should be expected but Bulls are not likely to be successful in pulling Iron Ore back above the Pivot and less likely to pull it back above 146.60 which put the scenario on neutral.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
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