Head of Commodity Strategy
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Forex report for the week ending August 14, click here.
Commodities have experienced a couple of bruising weeks with the Bloomberg commodity index seeing all its gains for the year wiped out at one point last week. This came in response to increased worries about the direction of global growth and demand given the ongoing China-US trade war and the Turkey crisis highlighting the risk to emerging market economies challenged by high levels of dollar debt, a stronger USD, and rising costs of funding.
Despite of these headwinds, the total net-long futures and options position held by hedge funds across 26 major commodities only dropped by 3% in the week to August 14. In energy, the selling of crude oil and products was off-set by a big jump in natural gas while the metals sector continued to see broad-based selling. The grains sector was mixed while all four soft commodities were sold.
Gold remained under pressure last week from the stronger dollar and EM weakness. In response to the technical break below support at $1,205/oz, the net-short jumped by 13% to a fresh record of 77,000 lots. The market is currently transfixed by the negative impact on those EM economies maintaining large external debt in dollars at a time where both the dollar and funding costs are rising.
With such an elevated short, the risk of a snap recovery has risen and on that basis the market will be pay extra attention to the dollar, which has weakened a bit in response to new low level trade talks between the US and China, as well as Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell speech on Friday at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference.
Should Powell unexpectedly blink and signal a slowdown in the tightening process, the dollar could get sold and potentially send gold on a path to recovery. In silver the net-short jumped by 61% last week but at just 20,000 lots it remains just half of the record from April.
Copper, often seen as a gauge of the global economy’s health given its diverse usage profile, has falling by more than 20% from the four-year high reached just a few months ago back in June. Last week saw copper troubled by news that a potential supply disruption from the world’s largest mine in Chile that had been looming for weeks showed signs of being averted. Hedge funds, however, remained undecided in the week to August 14 with reductions in both long and short positions helping to cut the net-short by just 2% or 507 lots. The cut-off day, though, was just before the price slumped by 4% last Wednesday in response to Chinese growth worries.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
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