COT: Gold sold despite multiple tailwinds

COT: Gold sold despite multiple tailwinds

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary:  The Commitments of Traders report covering positions held and changes made by money managers in the week to May 26 found that speculators maintained strong buying interest in crude oil while selling was most noticeable in natural gas, gold and the three major crops.


Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

The below summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across 24 major commodity futures up until last Tuesday, May 26. A week were global stocks continued higher with some, especially in the U.S. reaching new cycle highs. Broad weakness hit the dollar, a development if continued could be supportive for commodities. 

The Bloomberg Commodity Index was flat on the week with continued gains in energy, not least crude oil, being off-set by weakness across most metals. Despite a relatively neutral price behavior, funds continued to increase bearish exposure in the grain sector. In soft commodities sugar short covering continued while the cocoa short increased just before the price jumped. 

Energy: Strong buying of crude oil continued with the combined net-long in WTI (+14.3k) and Brent (+14.7k) reaching 536k lots, a four months high. The WTI long reached 363k lots, the highest since September 2018 while Brent, the recent laggard, reached 173k lots, well below the January peak at 429k lots.

Metals: The week to May 26 was a period where most metals paused with gold and silver both falling by 1.7% while copper was flat on the week. Gold's lack of hedge fund engagement continued with the net-long seeing another reduction of 14% to 24k lots, the lowest bet on rising prices in almost 12 months. An exodus from CME gold futures following the March dislocation to spot may have played its part with funds instead moving some of their long term exposure to exchange-traded funds. Total holdings in bullion backed ETFs broke above 100 million ounces for the first time last week. 

Silver's strong rally following the March collapse paused but the established momentum helped increase the net-long by 26% to 27k lots, still 42k lots or 60% below what funds held before the mentioned collapse. Silver's recent outperformance of gold may slow after the gold-silver ratio reached a technical target at 95 (ounces of silver to one ounce of gold).

The HG copper short was almost cut in half with funds not yet benefiting from the recovery seen in this important industrial metal. Today the price in early trading moved higher again to almost challenge $2.50/lb, a level that provided support from 2017 before becoming resistance following the March collapse below. 

Agriculture: Broad selling of the three major grains continued, not least corn where the net-short reached 276k lots,  the most bearish position held this time of year in at least ten years. A slump in ethanol demand (now recovering as oil rally), a rapid planting progress and doubts about export strength, have kept corn anchored close to the psychological key support level at $3/bu. 

Sugar short-covering continued as bio-fuel related demand recovered. The fund long in coffee was cut by 37% as the technical outlook deteriorated further following the break back below $1/lb.

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is issued by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) every Friday at 15:30 EST with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. The report breaks down the open interest across major futures markets from bonds, stock index, currencies and commodities. The ICE Futures Europe Exchange issues a similar report, also on Fridays, covering Brent crude oil and gas oil.

In commodities, the open interest is broken into the following categories: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User; Swap Dealers; Managed Money and other.

In financials the categories are Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Managed Money and other.

Our focus is primarily on the behaviour of Managed Money traders such as commodity trading advisors (CTA), commodity pool operators (CPO), and unregistered funds.

They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged. This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments. It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd. (Saxo) and the Saxo Bank Group provides execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation. Access and use of this website is subject to: (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; (iii) the Risk Warning; and (iv) any other notice or terms applying to Saxo’s news and research.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer for more details.

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992