Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Copper has following a short-lived correction resumed its ascent and today reached the highest level in more than two years. The rally has despite softening fundamentals, been supported by a stronger Yuan and supply disruptions at mining operations in Chile. The longer-term outlook remains supportive as the green electrification agenda gathers momentum.
What is our trading focus?
HG Copper - COPPERUSDEC20
COPA:xlon - WisdomTree Copper ETC (UCITS eligible)
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Copper has following a short-lived correction resumed its ascent and today reached the highest level in more than two years. While precious metals led by gold continue to look for drivers to ignite some fresh life into a stalled rally, HG copper has swiftly returned to break above the September high at $3.1210/lb.
Recent and current developments supporting copper:
Longer-term developments:
The latest leg in copper’s rally has been driven by a surge in China’s yuan to the highest since July 2018. As the metal rally buyers in the worlds largest commodity consuming nation can afford to pay a higher price. A rising interest rate differential between the dollar and yuan together with China’s continued recovery from their Q1 virus outbreak may continue to support this trend beyond the U.S. election in two weeks time.
It is however interesting to note that the latest rally has occurred despite rising fundamental headwinds. Inventories at exchange-monitored warehouses, especially those controlled by the London Metal Exchange, has recovered to 183,000 tons from a recent fifteen-year low at just 73,500 tons. This development has seen the spot versus the 3-month spread on LME rise to the biggest contango since June, a sign that the market remains well supplied.
Speculators meanwhile returned as buyers of HG copper following what turned out to be a shallow 9% correction in early October. In the week to October 13, the net-long jumped by 15% to 80.5k lots, not far from the late September peak at 87.3k lots which was the highest since early 2018.
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
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