Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
COT: Brent, copper, sugar buck selling trend
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Leveraged funds continued to cut bullish bets across 25 major commodity futures in the week to September 18, but Brent crude shrugged off the trend on the back of supply disruption fears while copper and sugar also saw short-covering gains.
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Commodities report for the week ending September 18, click here.
Leveraged funds cut bullish bets on 25 major commodity futures to 757,000 lots, a 2½ year low, in the week to September 18. The main driver last week was the grain sector which saw across-the-board selling ahead of what is expected to be a bumper US harvest.
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Commodities report for the week ending September 18, click here.
Leveraged funds cut bullish bets on 25 major commodity futures to 757,000 lots, a 2½ year low, in the week to September 18. The main driver last week was the grain sector which saw across-the-board selling ahead of what is expected to be a bumper US harvest.
The energy sector was mixed with the drop in supplies from Iran and Venezuela favoring Brent (+28,000 lots), the global benchmark, over WTI (-13,000 lots). Overall the combined net-long rose 15,000 to 811,000 lots, a 10-week high, as the short-term outlook continued to favour higher prices. This was bolstered after the Opec+ group met and left Algiers this weekend without providing any additional barrels, thereby sidestepping President Trump's demand for additional supply to help offset his actions against Iran.
The additional rally above $80/b in Brent crude oil this Monday followed comments from two of the world’s biggest oil traders about the short-term risk of higher prices. Executives from Trafigura and Mercuria at the annual Asia Pasific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) in Singapore both saw the risk of oil rising to $100/b by 2019. Falling supplies from Iran due to US sanctions may drive the market into a significant supply deficit during the coming quarters. You can follow news from the conference by following #PlattsAPPEC on Twitter.
Natural gas was sold before rallying on the news that China would introduce tariffs on US LNG at a lower-than-expected rate.
The additional rally above $80/b in Brent crude oil this Monday followed comments from two of the world’s biggest oil traders about the short-term risk of higher prices. Executives from Trafigura and Mercuria at the annual Asia Pasific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) in Singapore both saw the risk of oil rising to $100/b by 2019. Falling supplies from Iran due to US sanctions may drive the market into a significant supply deficit during the coming quarters. You can follow news from the conference by following #PlattsAPPEC on Twitter.
Natural gas was sold before rallying on the news that China would introduce tariffs on US LNG at a lower-than-expected rate.
Gold was sold again as it continued to struggle above $1,200/oz. The HG copper net-short was cut to a 10-week low following a 45% reduction and platinum to a 14-week low on improved outlook for Chinese demand after the country announced plans to cut taxes and increase spending.
Continued selling of the three major crops ahead of a bumper US harvest helped send the combined net-short to 212,000 lots, the most bearish since February. The earlier support for Chicago wheat due to a troubled growing season outside the US continued to fade with funds turning net-short again.
In soft commodities the sugar net-short was halved despite renewed price weakness during the reporting week. Bearish Arabica coffee bets reached a new extreme at 109,000 lots and it remains the least favoured of all commodities with the price lingering at a 12-year low.
Related Articles
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)