Technical Update - US Treasury yields on the rise. Could make new highs Technical Update - US Treasury yields on the rise. Could make new highs Technical Update - US Treasury yields on the rise. Could make new highs

Technical Update - US Treasury yields on the rise. Could make new highs

Bonds 3 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group

Summary:  Correction in US Treasury yields likely to be over. Uptrends set to resume. Uptrends that could very well take out previous peaks
2-year yields bouncing from rising trendline
10-years resuming uptrend not even touching lower rising trend line, a sign of strength
30-year bouncing from support close to confirm uptrend resuming

US 2-year Treasury yields bounced off the lower rising trendline and the 55 daily Moving Average.
RSI is still bullish suggesting higher yields. A bullish move to around the 5% level seems likely.
If yields are taking out the previous peak at 4.062 a move to 5.20 is in the cards

A close below 4.70 will demolish and reverse the bullish picture and is likely to push 2-year yields down toa round 4.50-4.40

Source: Saxo Group

US 10-year Treasury yields correction following the Evening Doji like top and reversal pattern (circled, and not perfect since the body of the Doji candle is inside the preceding bullish candle and the subsequent bearish candle) seems to be over.
Bouncing from the 0.5 retracement at 4.04 yields are resuming uptrend.

No divergence on RSI indicating likely higher yields. An RSI close above 60 will further underline that picture.

If yields are taking out 4.28 resistance new highs are in the cards. A move to the 1.382 projection  at 4.48 and testing of the upper rising trendline could be seen.

A close below 4.04 will demolish this bullish picture. Key strong support at around 3.95
Source: Saxo Group
US 30-year Treasury yields bounced from support area 4.17-4.14 and seems to be resuming uptrend.
A close above 4.33 and an RSI close above 60 will confirm that scenario.
US 30-year yields could be set for higher highs.

A break above 4.48 a move to the 1.382 projection at 4.58 is likely.
Resistance at 4.35-4.36 is key.

For this potential bullish scenario to be demolished a close below 4.17
Source: Tradingview

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992