Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew July 29 2025

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Euro tumbles on the trade deal, Dax cannot hold gains but the S&P his the 6th record


Good morning,

The S&P 500 has now recorded gains for six consecutive days. However, despite what was described as the “biggest trade deal in history,” yesterday’s market action was relatively uneventful.

The DAX index failed to maintain its early gains, closing the day below 24,000 after briefly approaching its all-time high in the morning.

Audi reported disappointing numbers yesterday and Sika today showed a significant impact of the weak USD. 

According to Reuters, Nvidia has ordered 300,000 H20 chipsets from contract manufacturer TSMC amid strong Chinese demand, with each unit reportedly selling for approximately $12,000.

U.S. Treasury yields rose moderately, with the 30-year at 4.95% and the 10-year at 4.40%. The U.S. dollar index surged to 98.70 as EUR/USD dropped to 1.1580, USD/JPY traded at 148.30, GBP/USD at 1.3350, and USD/CHF climbed above 0.80. Gold fell to 3,320 while silver remained little changed at 28.15.

Today, the U.S. and China are set to resume trade talks after top officials met in Stockholm on Monday, where they discussed ongoing disputes and agreed to extend their trade truce by three months. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng are leading the negotiations. With the August 12 deadline approaching, a durable agreement on tariffs is essential to avoid major global supply chain disruptions and renewed triple-digit U.S. tariffs.

President Trump has stated he will soon announce new tariffs on pharmaceuticals. He has also set a new deadline—ten to twelve days—for Russia to show progress in negotiations with Ukraine.

Germany is planning to borrow €174 billion this year, over €30 billion more than last year.

Today brings a wave of economic data and company earnings, but more significant developments are expected over the next three days. Key highlights include U.S. Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings data, along with earnings reports from Visa, Starbucks, P&G, Spotify, Boeing, UnitedHealth, PayPal, and UPS.

Given the upcoming events this week with  the US rate decision, the PCE Inflation data, the Nonfarm Payroll and 4 of the magnificent 7 reporting, , consider reviewing your investment positions and think about:

- How much risk you are willing to carry into the next few days. Consider options for speculative trades and hedging strategies.

- Assess your risk/reward: check how much you could gain if your view is correct versus what you might lose if you’re wrong, and adjust your positions accordingly.

- Review your Autoinvest plan—make sure your account is funded and your strategy is up to date.

To assist, Charu wrote two great articles:

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

- US Consumer Confidence (July): Conference Board’s reading, watched for consumer sentiment shifts

- Jolts Job openings

- Eurozone GDP Growth QoQ Flash (Q2): Early read on eurozone economic activity

- Key Earnings: Visa, Starbucks, P&G, Spotify, Boeing, UnitedHealth, PayPal, UPS,

 Wednesday, July 30, 2025

- Swiss KOF INdicator

- Expectations that rates will remain steady; markets will US Federal Reserve (FOMC) Meeting & Rate Decision: focus on the policy tone

- Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: No change expected in benchmark rates

- Eurozone & German GDP, Retail Sales (Q2): Regional growth snapshot

- US ADP Employment Pending Home Sales (June): Insight into the US housing market,

- Key Earnings: Microsoft, Meta, American Tower, KraftHeinz, Ford, TEVA Robinhood, Qualcom

 

Thursday, July 31, 2025

  • Swiss retail Sales-

 Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision & JGB Purchases: Critical for yen and global bond markets

- Australian Retail Sales (June): Indicator for Asia-Pacific markets

- Chinese PMI (July): Update on manufacturing activity in the world’s second-largest economy

- US PCE Price Index (June): The Fed’s preferred inflation metric

- German Consumer Price Inflation (July): Key for ECB policy watchers

- Key Earnings: Apple, Mastercard,  Amazon.com AbbVie, , Comcast, Roku, Reddit, Coinbase

 

 Friday, August 1, 2025

- Swiss National Holiday

- US Nonfarm Payrolls (July): Flagship labor market report, forecast to show slowdown in hiring

- Japan Rate Decision

- US Unemployment Rate (July): Expected at 4.2%

- Average Hourly Earnings (July): Monitoring wage growth pressures

- US ISM Manufacturing PMI (July): Vital for near-term growth signals

- Eurozone Consumer Price Inflation (July): Crucial inflation readout

- Chinese Manufacturing PMI (July): Health of the world’s manufacturing engine

- Key Earnings: Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Colgate-Palmolive, Linde,

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting...
  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

The information on or via the website is provided to you by Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. (“Saxo Bank”) for educational and information purposes only. The information should not be construed as an offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction or any particular service, nor should the contents be construed as advice of any other kind, for example of a tax or legal nature.

All trading carries risk. Loses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Saxo Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information provided and shall not be responsible for any errors or omissions or for any losses or damages resulting from the use of such information.

The content of this website represents marketing material and is not the result of financial analysis or research. It has therefore not been prepared in accordance with directives designed to promote the independence of financial/investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of financial/investment research.

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.