Morning Brew July 29 2025

Good morning,

The S&P 500 has now recorded gains for six consecutive days. However, despite what was described as the “biggest trade deal in history,” yesterday’s market action was relatively uneventful.

The DAX index failed to maintain its early gains, closing the day below 24,000 after briefly approaching its all-time high in the morning.

Audi reported disappointing numbers yesterday and Sika today showed a significant impact of the weak USD. 

According to Reuters, Nvidia has ordered 300,000 H20 chipsets from contract manufacturer TSMC amid strong Chinese demand, with each unit reportedly selling for approximately $12,000.

U.S. Treasury yields rose moderately, with the 30-year at 4.95% and the 10-year at 4.40%. The U.S. dollar index surged to 98.70 as EUR/USD dropped to 1.1580, USD/JPY traded at 148.30, GBP/USD at 1.3350, and USD/CHF climbed above 0.80. Gold fell to 3,320 while silver remained little changed at 28.15.

Today, the U.S. and China are set to resume trade talks after top officials met in Stockholm on Monday, where they discussed ongoing disputes and agreed to extend their trade truce by three months. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng are leading the negotiations. With the August 12 deadline approaching, a durable agreement on tariffs is essential to avoid major global supply chain disruptions and renewed triple-digit U.S. tariffs.

President Trump has stated he will soon announce new tariffs on pharmaceuticals. He has also set a new deadline—ten to twelve days—for Russia to show progress in negotiations with Ukraine.

Germany is planning to borrow €174 billion this year, over €30 billion more than last year.

Today brings a wave of economic data and company earnings, but more significant developments are expected over the next three days. Key highlights include U.S. Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings data, along with earnings reports from Visa, Starbucks, P&G, Spotify, Boeing, UnitedHealth, PayPal, and UPS.

Given the upcoming events this week with  the US rate decision, the PCE Inflation data, the Nonfarm Payroll and 4 of the magnificent 7 reporting, , consider reviewing your investment positions and think about:

- How much risk you are willing to carry into the next few days. Consider options for speculative trades and hedging strategies.

- Assess your risk/reward: check how much you could gain if your view is correct versus what you might lose if you’re wrong, and adjust your positions accordingly.

- Review your Autoinvest plan—make sure your account is funded and your strategy is up to date.

To assist, Charu wrote two great articles:

• Make-or-break week for stocks: key questions investors are asking
  Trump’s ‘AI Action’ plan: the real opportunity is beyond Big Tech

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

- US Consumer Confidence (July): Conference Board’s reading, watched for consumer sentiment shifts

- Jolts Job openings

- Eurozone GDP Growth QoQ Flash (Q2): Early read on eurozone economic activity

- Key Earnings: Visa, Starbucks, P&G, Spotify, Boeing, UnitedHealth, PayPal, UPS,

 Wednesday, July 30, 2025

- Swiss KOF INdicator

- Expectations that rates will remain steady; markets will US Federal Reserve (FOMC) Meeting & Rate Decision: focus on the policy tone

- Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: No change expected in benchmark rates

- Eurozone & German GDP, Retail Sales (Q2): Regional growth snapshot

- US ADP Employment Pending Home Sales (June): Insight into the US housing market,

- Key Earnings: Microsoft, Meta, American Tower, KraftHeinz, Ford, TEVA Robinhood, Qualcom

Thursday, July 31, 2025

• Swiss retail Sales-

 Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision & JGB Purchases: Critical for yen and global bond markets

- Australian Retail Sales (June): Indicator for Asia-Pacific markets

- Chinese PMI (July): Update on manufacturing activity in the world’s second-largest economy

- US PCE Price Index (June): The Fed’s preferred inflation metric

- German Consumer Price Inflation (July): Key for ECB policy watchers

- Key Earnings: Apple, Mastercard,  Amazon.com AbbVie, , Comcast, Roku, Reddit, Coinbase

 Friday, August 1, 2025

- Swiss National Holiday

- US Nonfarm Payrolls (July): Flagship labor market report, forecast to show slowdown in hiring

- Japan Rate Decision

- US Unemployment Rate (July): Expected at 4.2%

- Average Hourly Earnings (July): Monitoring wage growth pressures

- US ISM Manufacturing PMI (July): Vital for near-term growth signals

- Eurozone Consumer Price Inflation (July): Crucial inflation readout

- Chinese Manufacturing PMI (July): Health of the world’s manufacturing engine

- Key Earnings: Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Colgate-Palmolive, Linde,