Morning Brew July 1 2025

Good morning,

The Dollar remains in focus. We are starting  the second half of the year at 4 year lows, the USD Index is at 96.70, EURUSD is testing the 1.18 and one needs more than 1.25 USD to buy one Swiss Franc.

Switzerland is in a tough spot with the Swiss franc appreciating and tariffs looming…

Gold is up 0.75% this morning, Silver unchanged and Platinum down 0.6%, Crypto is lower with ETH at 2455 and Bitcoin  106700.

Equities ended the half year unexcitedly but the S&P500 and Nasdaq at record closings. At the moment the US500 is 9192 and the US tech 100 22630. The GER40 remains near 24000.

Tariffs, the passage of the “Big Beautiful Bill” and the struggle between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell are likely to dominate the near term.

We have 9 days before the tariff respite ends and DJT yesterday expressed his unhappiness with negotiations – yesterday particularly with Japan.

Congress is struggling with the passage of Trumps tax bill that would add 3.3 trillion USD in debt. Elon Musk again involved himself heavily: he  threatens all who campaigned on reducing debt but vote in favor of Trumps bill with an Anti-Election campaign.

Trump expressed his unhappiness with the fed yesterday, stating the US rate should be between Denmark`s and Japan`s so app 1 to 1.5%.

The Key scheduled event today will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the EU Inflation but I expect politics to take center stage. It may well be that a disagreement between Elon Musk and Donald Trump is the noisiest event but we will have to see if it is the most important.

July 1, 2025 (Tuesday)

- Japan Tankan Survey

- China PMI
- US ISM & PMI
  - Construction Spending (10:00)–May U.S.
  - Domestic Vehicle Sales–Jun U.S.
  - Nationwide House Prices (2:00)–Jun U.K.
  - CPI (5:00)–Jun P Eurozone

- July 2, 2025 (Wednesday)
  - ADP Employment Report (8:15)–Jun U.S.
  - Unemployment Rate (5:00)–May Eurozone
- July 3, 2025 (Thursday)
- China PMI
  - Trade Balance (8:30)–May U.S.

  - Employment Report (8:30)–Jun U.S.

  - Factory Orders (10:00)–May U.S.
  - ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (10:00)–Jun U.S.
  - Factory Orders (10:00)–May F U.S.
  - Merchandise Trade Balance (8:30)–May Canada

- July 4, 2025 (Friday)

  - No major G10 releases (U.S. holiday)

- July 7, 2025 (Monday)

  - Leading Indicators (1:00)–May P Japan

  - Current Account (19:50)–May Japan

  - Trade Balance (19:50)–May Japan

  - Retail Sales (5:00)–May Eurozone

- July 8, 2025 (Tuesday)

  - Consumer Credit (15:00)–May U.S.
- July 9, 2025 (Wednesday)
- China CPI & PPI
- AU rate decision
  - Wholesale Inventories (10:00)–May F U.S.
 - Machine Tool Orders (2:00)–Jun P Japan
- July 10, 2025 (Thursday)
  - No major releases
- July 11, 2025 (Friday)
  - Treasury Statement (14:00)–Jun U.S.
  - Employment Report (8:30)–Jun Canada
  - Building Permits (8:30)–May Canada
  - Industrial Production (2:00)–May U.K.
  - Trade Balance (2:00)–May U.K.