Morning Brew January 31 2025

Good morning,

Next week I will off skiing, I hope for safe and fun trading for you al, it will be an interesting week coming up.

All my colleagues’ research is available in the platform in the research tab. Here you also have the calendar that lists not only economic events but also earnings.

It was a mostly calm day yesterday, US indexes gained about 0.5% with underlying volatility from the companies that reported after ours on Wednesday: Tesla +2.9% IBM +13% UPS -14% and Microsoft -6.2%, Volumes were solid at 13.8 billion shares.

Apple shares lost lost 1.5% after results and Intel rose 1.36% after hours. Apples outlook was more upbeat than many had feared, projecting rising sales this quarter on AI integration.

Softbank is looking at OpenAI at a valuation of 300 billion USD.

As Germany is heading into a landmark parliamentary vote on immigration while the Dax continues to ignore all headlines and rises from record to record, currently the indication of the Dax is 21730 or up 9.5% this year.
In the UK, 5 years after Brexit, 55% call leaving a mistake and 11% are happy with the decision. 

Gold hit a new high in the night and traded as high as 2799.71 within reach of the 2800. Worries on tariffs, central bank purchases and a strong comment by Goldman Sachs are behind the 6% rise this month.  Worries on tariffs caused 13 million ounces of gold to be delivered to Comex approved since the US election.  Goldman Sachs called >gold their strongest conviction. Silver rose to a 31.70 and is currently at 31.45.

The ECB provided no surprise in action or press conference, there was a hint of dovishness and the Euro is a little weaker at 1.0395, GBPUSD is at 1.2410 and USDJPY 154.70. 10 year yields are stable at 4.54, Bitcoin 104500. 

The US PCE Deflator will likely make or break the day as key news unless there is a firm decision on tariffs from the US administration. The Inflation data is still Data is for December so before trump took over.

Trade safely the next week!

Friday;

- UK Houseprices, France CPI, German Unemplyment & CPI US PCE, Canada GDP
- Earnings: Abbvie, Colgate Palmolive, Chevron.

Key dates in Febuary

Date      Event

3-Feb    International PMI

4-Feb    US Factory Orders

5-Feb    International PMI

6-Feb    Bank of England Rate decision

7-Feb    US Nonfarm Payrolls

12-Feb  US CPI

13-Feb  Germany Inflation, UK GDP, US PPI

14-Feb  US Import Prices & Retail Sales

17-Feb  Japan GDP

18-Feb  Sweden, France, Canada CPI, Germany ZEW

19-Feb  UK Inflation

20-Feb  US Philly Fed

21-Feb  Japan CPI, UK CPI, International PMI

23-Feb  Germany Snap Election

24-Feb  Germany IFO

25-Feb  Germany GDP, US Consumer Confidence

27-Feb  US Durable goods & GDP

28-Feb  US PCE