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Morning Brew January 31 2025
Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Résumé: Month End, US Inflation, Tariffs, next Morning Brew on Feb 10th
Good morning,
Next week I will off skiing, I hope for safe and fun trading for you al, it will be an interesting week coming up.
All my colleagues’ research is available in the platform in the research tab. Here you also have the calendar that lists not only economic events but also earnings.
It was a mostly calm day yesterday, US indexes gained about 0.5% with underlying volatility from the companies that reported after ours on Wednesday: Tesla +2.9% IBM +13% UPS -14% and Microsoft -6.2%, Volumes were solid at 13.8 billion shares.
Apple shares lost lost 1.5% after results and Intel rose 1.36% after hours. Apples outlook was more upbeat than many had feared, projecting rising sales this quarter on AI integration.
Softbank is looking at OpenAI at a valuation of 300 billion USD.
As Germany is heading into a landmark parliamentary vote on immigration while the Dax continues to ignore all headlines and rises from record to record, currently the indication of the Dax is 21730 or up 9.5% this year.
In the UK, 5 years after Brexit, 55% call leaving a mistake and 11% are happy with the decision.
Gold hit a new high in the night and traded as high as 2799.71 within reach of the 2800. Worries on tariffs, central bank purchases and a strong comment by Goldman Sachs are behind the 6% rise this month. Worries on tariffs caused 13 million ounces of gold to be delivered to Comex approved since the US election. Goldman Sachs called >gold their strongest conviction. Silver rose to a 31.70 and is currently at 31.45.
The ECB provided no surprise in action or press conference, there was a hint of dovishness and the Euro is a little weaker at 1.0395, GBPUSD is at 1.2410 and USDJPY 154.70. 10 year yields are stable at 4.54, Bitcoin 104500.
The US PCE Deflator will likely make or break the day as key news unless there is a firm decision on tariffs from the US administration. The Inflation data is still Data is for December so before trump took over.
Trade safely the next week!
Friday;
- UK Houseprices, France CPI, German Unemplyment & CPI US PCE, Canada GDP
- Earnings: Abbvie, Colgate Palmolive, Chevron.
Key dates in Febuary
Date Event
3-Feb International PMI
4-Feb US Factory Orders
5-Feb International PMI
6-Feb Bank of England Rate decision
7-Feb US Nonfarm Payrolls
12-Feb US CPI
13-Feb Germany Inflation, UK GDP, US PPI
14-Feb US Import Prices & Retail Sales
17-Feb Japan GDP
18-Feb Sweden, France, Canada CPI, Germany ZEW
19-Feb UK Inflation
20-Feb US Philly Fed
21-Feb Japan CPI, UK CPI, International PMI
23-Feb Germany Snap Election
24-Feb Germany IFO
25-Feb Germany GDP, US Consumer Confidence
27-Feb US Durable goods & GDP
28-Feb US PCE