Morning Brew February 28 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Sanctions drive markets
The War in Ukraine, the international sanctions and their fallout have a firm hold on markets and most likely will dominate the week.
As more and more sanctions are being imposed against Russia from all around the globe, starting with the exclusion of several banks from the SWIFT system, blocking Russian Central Bank transactions and imposing flight restrictions, markets are rather nervous.
The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund announced to divest Russian assets and BOP announced it would withdraw from its stake in Rosneft.
The Russian Ruble lost up to 30% of value in choppy trading and the Central bank just announced an emergency rate hike to 20%. We are currently trading 101 against the USD.
The rise in friction sparks risk off sentiment with Indexes falling across the board, Oil and Gold rise, the EUR is under pressure. Rose app 1% to 1908, Silver is at 24.30, Oil gains 5% and Indexes lose 3% in Europe, the Nasdaq 2% and the S&P500 0.5%.
EURUSD fell to 1.1170 and GBPUSD to 1.3375.
Bitcoin gives up 2.6% to trade at 38000.
Berkershire Hathaway announces stellar results on Saturday but Warren Buffet stated a lack of investment opportunities.
Todays economic data is a flurry of international CPI Data and the Swiss KOF but will be secondary developments in Eastern Europe We can also see some month end moves.
We are continuously updating all affected clients on any impacts from sanctions, in general we have imposed restrictions to prevent clients from being trapped in illiquid assets.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.