Morning Brew April 8 2026

Good morning

Markets celebrate the ceasefire and the apparent de-escalation in the Middle East and Iran:

Indexes soar, oil falls, precious metals gain, and the USD loses value.

Asian shares have been the biggest losers of the war and are today the strongest gainers; Korea and Japan are both up 5%.

The US 500 rises 2.4% to 6780, the US 30 rises 2.1% to 47,642, the US Tech 100 rises 3% to 24,955, and the GE40 rises nearly 4% to 24,109.

The USD Index falls below 99, with EURUSD at 1.1675, Cable at 1.3415, and USDJPY at 158.40. Bitcoin rises to 71,500, and gold and silver jump to 4,800 and 76.60, respectively.

Charu wrote a great summary of what to watch for the next couple of days.

Key points:

• The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire and reopening of Hormuz , removing the worst immediate tail risk, which explains the sharp relief move across oil, equities, and risk assets.
• Markets can now start to put some rate cuts back on the table, but they are unlikely to fully erase the recent shock unless energy flows normalize quickly and diplomacy holds.
• This is a pause, not a full reset , so tactical relief can continue in the near term, but structural risks around oil, inflation, and geopolitics have not disappeared.

It is overall great news that the situation did not escalate further and also that for the next two weeks the Strait of Hormuz is open. The key question is whether this can be converted into a longer-lasting peace.

While this is certainly very good news, it may take some traders on the wrong foot when bets were made on an escalation – watch out for erratic moves.

The political fallout and economic effects will take time to materialize and will be immensely interesting

John published his Q2 outlook in the night, it is written before the announcement of the ceasefire but still a great summary :

Q2 Outlook for Traders: The Iran War and its Risks

The outbreak of war in Iran has set the market focus on spiking oil and gas prices as the most important immediate risk factor clouding the outlook. As of the mid-March time frame of the writing of this outlook, the market has “under-reacted” to the gravity of risks and is pricing that oil and gas flows will resume quickly and fully. We should all hope that the market is right. This outlook considers two scenarios stemming from the immediate risks of the war in Iran as well as how the war is a chapter in the ongoing rivalry between the US and China and what to look for next.

Wed, Apr 8

US February wholesale inventories; Fed speakers

US March CPI (consensus ~3.4–3.5% YoY); US weekly initial jobless claims

US March PPI; University of Michigan April Consumer Sentiment