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Blockading the Hormuz Strait blockade: how does this work, exactly?
Summary: Today, we look at the fresh pain for global markets on the collapse of US-Iran talks this weekend and the new US intent to blockade the Hormuz Strait, at least for any ships that are paying tolls to Iran (and presumably any Iranian ship?). We also wonder how China may eventually weigh in, a key question ahead of a supposed Trump-Xi summit set for next month. Elsewhere, we look at the latest winners and losers in the US equity market as Anthropic continues to make enormous waves for software and other companies. This and much more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.
Today’s Links
Ole’s latest rundown of the US COT report on speculative US futures positioning Michael Every’s latest after failed US-Iran talks An AI super-user on the state of AI for creating software Is AI dragging us toward a dystopian future? Seeking Alpha article investigates Akamai’s share price plunge There Akamai was, minding its own business and enjoying a nice ramp in its share price this year (up almost 39% for the year at its late March high), when bears took down the stock on the idea that Anthropic’s Claude Managed Agents could bypass Akamai’s infrastructure. This is the latest of Anthropic’s many victims, with the scale of anticipated disruption remarkable as these companies have yet to report any negative impact from . The AI world is moving at breakneck speed, and it will be interesting to see if these huge markdowns, first in software-as-a-service companies and now in cybersecurity and other internet infrastructure names, are justified or whether they can retain some of their moats or even find new ways that AI might drive new business opportunities. The incoming earnings season kicking off this week could start to reveal far more as companies report what impacts they are seeing currently as well as what they anticipate is coming in the quarters ahead.
Some interesting developments this week as discussed on today’s Saxo Market Call podcast.
This is latest daily from Rabobank’s Macro Strategist Michael Every and a colleague, especially worth reading after this weekend’s collapse of US-Iran talks and the subsequent US posturing against Iran collecting tolls to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Listen to an AI super-user describe what is possible already now in creating new software apps with the current state-of-the-art in AI, where things may be headed for senior software engineers versus mid-level and starting level engineers, the risk of a “Challenger disaster” and much more.
A compelling essay on the risk of a dystopian future if AI development is allowed to override core human values, human limits, and meaningful human oversight.
And argues that the move is overdone.Chart of the Day - Akamai (AKAM)
And here is a weekly chart for the longer term perspective:
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