Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 41, China is out, VP Debate In, RBA, FOMC Mins, New Month, Final Quarter

Macro 2 minutes to read

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: WK # 41, China out, VP Debate In, RBA, FOMC Mins, New Month = Final Quarter = New POTUS

 

Top of Mind…

  • Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 41

  • Hope everyone had an epic restful weekend

  • What kind of week are you trying to have up ahead?

  • Focus: Well folks, basically a month to the pivotal US election day, so VP debate between Harris & Pence may be the only actual “debate”, despite us still having two more meet-ups scheduled between Trump & Biden. Worth noting Harris is a prosecutor by background & Pence’s speeches have tended to be cardboard tasty.

  • It’s worth noting, the debates are not mandated by the constitution & part of the Dragon’s ring-side coaching to one of the teams is to bin one of the debates, among other advice going forward.

  • Markets: New Month, Final Quarter means the potential noise in price action of last wk is out of the way. We could potentially be going back into a sustained run of risk-assets doing well & the USD being sold – i.e. its seems to be so consensus that its going to get volatile on the election outcome, that KVP is starting to think that pathway is going to get priced out.

  • Economics: Final Service PMIs across the board, including US ISM Non-mfg PMI. We got some industrial production data out of Europe including German Factory orders. The US will see Trade Balance, JOLTS & the usual weekly jobs data (ticked lower last wk)

  • Politics: VP Debate Wed 7 Oct – Its going down! Harris is going to go through Pence like a Vegan on a Meat Lover.

  • Central Banks: RBA 0.25 % e/p

  • ECB’s Lagarde set to speak on Tue 6 Oct 21:00 SGT & Wed 20:00 SGT

  • Also have BoE’s Bailey Thu @ 15:25 SGT & BoC Macklem Thu @ 2-:30 SGT

  • Fed Speak: Evans, Bostic, Powell Tue 6 Oct @ 22:40 SGT, Harker, Kaplan, Rosengren, Williams

  • FOMC Minutes due early Thu Asia, Wed evening ET US - likely nothing new here… yet obviously if YCC is coming back in focus & concerns about a slowdown in fiscal support may move markets.

  • Holidays: China has been out since last Thu & only gets back in on Fri this wk

  • Other: We got daylights saving time shift in Australia over the wkd, taking us back to 3hrs with SG from 2.

-

Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity |Process > Outcome | Sizing > Idea.

This is the way 

KVP

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed here or within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.