Market Quick Take - Nvidia earnings up next Tuesday - 13 November 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: US PPI and Fed speakers in focus today after sharp repricing higher in Fed rate hike expectations this week.
• Equities: US stocks fell as Nvidia’s leadership crisis deepened, Europe reached fresh records, Asian markets rebounded as technology sentiment improved.
• Volatility: Equity and Treasury implied volatility rose together while the VIX curve stayed upward sloping
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin slipped below seventy thousand dollars while crypto equities fell and ETF outflows continued
• Commodities: Commodities slide as hawkish Fed weighs on gold while oil rebounds
• Fixed Income: US treasuries continue their steep sell-off all along the curve. Another weak US treasury auction (30-year T-bonds) yesterday.
• Currencies: USD surge extended yesterday, but eased overnight as traders are wary of pressing USDJPY above key 160.00 level on intervention risk.

Macro

• Fed officials reinforced their hawkish message on Thursday, following a third consecutive above-consensus US CPI reading. Daly warned that further rate hikes may be needed, Goolsbee described inflation as entering a difficult phase, while Hammack, an FOMC voter, called for more restrictive policy. Fellow voter Barr focused on the risks of AI widening inequality rather than the immediate rate outlook. Overall, the comments reinforced expectations that the Fed's inflation fight is far from over short-end yields seeing upward pressure as one full rate hike is priced in for December followed by another two before June.
• Trump ruled out the need for an Iran deal and told Vance to focus on domestic issues, while Iran demands an end to the naval blockade and sanctions and refuses to give up enriched nuclear material. Still, oil prices are heading for a second weekly decline as Middle East exports recover and Democrats’ midterm win bolsters hopes for a quicker resolution.
• US existing home sales fell 5.5% in October to 3.75 million, the lowest since 2010 and below expectations, amid near-record-high mortgage rates. Inventory rose to 1.59 million (5.1 months of supply), and the median price inched up 0.4% yoy to $416,700.
• UK GDP grew 0.7% qoq in Q3 2026, the fastest pace since early 2024 and in line with expectations, driven mainly by stronger services and investment. Production eked out a small gain, construction fell, and net trade was a slight drag. GDP rose 1.9% yoy, up from 1.4% in Q2.
• US jobless claims rose by 9,000 to 200,000 in the week to November 7, slightly above expectations but still low by historical standards. Continuing claims fell by 13,000 to 1.679 million, near their lowest since March 2023, underscoring a still-robust labor market despite high rates and energy costs.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0900 – IEAs Monthly Oil Market Report
• 1000 – Eurozone 3Q GDP (Second reading)
• 1330 – US Oct PPI
• Fed speakers: Goolsbee (1330), Collins (1410), Logan (Voter - 1440), Bowman (Voter - 1550), Daly (1700)

Earnings events

Next week

• Tuesday: Nvidia, Home Depot, Disney
• Wednesday: Palo Alto Networks, TJX companies, Lowe’s, Target
• Thursday: Walmart, Tokio Marine Holdings, Intuit

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.3% and the Dow declined 0.4% on Thursday as Nvidia’s leadership crisis and rising oil prices weighed on sentiment. Nvidia dropped 4.3% following CEO Jensen Huang’s departure, while rivals AMD and Broadcom gained 5.9% and 5.5%, respectively, as investors reassessed the competitive landscape for artificial intelligence chips. US futures pointed higher this morning, suggesting some relief after a turbulent week for technology stocks.
• Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 0.1%, securing its fourth consecutive gain after touching a record high, while the DAX gained 0.4% and the FTSE 100 added 0.3%. European equities continued to benefit from investors shifting away from US technology stocks, with strong corporate earnings helping offset concerns about rising oil prices. Burberry jumped 8% after reporting better-than-expected sales and profits, signalling progress in its turnaround, while Munich Re gained 2.9% after publishing quarterly results and confirming its upgraded annual profit target. Europe’s greater exposure to financials, industrials and consumer businesses continued to offer investors an alternative to the technology-heavy US market.
• Asia: Asian equities edged higher in early trading on Friday, although South Korea’s Kospi slipped slightly and Japan’s Nikkei gave up early gains to trade broadly flat. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.4%, with Alibaba dropping 3.9% amid concerns over potential US restrictions on Chinese AI companies’ access to advanced chips. Amicro fell 9.6% on Friday after surging 38% on its Hong Kong market debut, as investors locked in gains.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 18.70 | VIX FUTURES: 18.950 (Nov) | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (150.16) | MARKET REGIME: NEUTRAL / CHOP | AS OF ~05:00 CET

• Nvidia's leadership shock and a 10-year yield above 5% sent traders back to short-dated protection on Thursday. The VIX rose to 18.70, but the bid concentrated in one-day options: VIX1D jumped about a quarter, enough to price roughly a 1% move for today's PPI. Nasdaq vol rose almost 7% and dispersion climbed while the index fell only 0.4%, so the damage stayed in chips and neoclouds rather than spreading across the index.
• In futures, the November contract, which spans the 9 December Fed decision, is building a hike hump, and the front now trades level with spot. October PPI at 14:30 CET and three Fed speakers this afternoon are the tests.

More in our Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~68,709 -3.74% | ETHEREUM ~1,927 -4.50% | IBIT 40.36 -4.45% | ETHA 45.54 -3.23% | AS OF ~05:00 CET

• A leveraged long flush took bitcoin below USD 69,000 overnight, its lowest since August, as a stronger dollar and December hike pricing collided with Nvidia's leadership crisis. Most of the USD 1.4bn or more of liquidations hit longs, and ether lost the USD 2,000 level. Bitcoin funds extended their outflow streak to five sessions through Wednesday, nearly all of it through IBIT.
• In equities, MSCI's decision to delete Strategy after 30 November adds index selling just as its coin stack drops below cost. The AI-hosting miners fell on neocloud financing fears after Nebius's guidance, with IREN down 9%. That leaves today's PPI, Monday's treasury disclosures and Nvidia's 17 November results as the next tests.

Commodities

• Commodities: The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index heads for a fourth weekly decline, hitting a three-month low and trimming YTD gains to 26%. Metals led losses, with precious metals down 4% as a stronger dollar and rising US yields weighed on sentiment. Crude and fuel prices weakened, partly offset by natural gas, while grains rallied on tighter US supply estimates and faltering Russia–Ukraine peace talks.
• Metals: Gold slumped to a 13-month low at USD 3,852 on Thursday before rebounding towards USD 3,900. Down more than 4% this week, bullion remains under pressure from rising yields, dollar strength and expectations of further Fed tightening following another hot CPI print. Short sellers remain in control, with a recovery above USD 4,000 needed to ease downside pressure.
• Oil: Brent rises for a third day to USD 96.50 as prospects for a US–Iran peace deal fade amid continued disagreements over sanctions, the naval blockade and nuclear material. Nevertheless, crude heads for a second weekly loss as Middle East exports recover towards pre-war levels. Refined products and gas flows remain constrained, however, keeping supply pressures elevated in those sectors.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields extended sharply higher on the significant repricing of Fed rate hike expectations as additional Fed comments yesterday added to the selling pressure on treasuries. The benchmark US 2-year yield rose another fourteen basis points to 4.88% as it neared the cycle high of 4.96% from late September, while longer-dated treasuries came under more significant selling pressure than earlier this week as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose almost 13 basis points to near 5.12%, a more than three-week high. A Treasury auction of 30-year T-bonds saw the weakest demand since summer.
• US high yield bonds saw more modest selling pressure than US treasuries as credit spreads tightened. The Bloomberg index we track of the spread between US high yield bonds and US treasuries tightened eight basis points to 312 basis points.

Currencies

• The US dollar strength persisted Thursday, driven by the sharp repricing of US Fed policy tightening expectations. Still, new highs failed to hold overnight in early Friday trading as traders shied away from continuing to pressure USDJPY above 160.00. That pair rose above that key psychological level briefly overnight for the first time since early September, with the market wary of the risk that Japan’s Ministry of Finance may intervene to strengthen the JPY. In that late September episode, USDJPY traded back and forth around the 160.00 level before a wave of intervention pushed USJDPY to below 156.00 over the course of two days. Elsewhere, EURUSD hit a new 19-month low near 1.1050 before finding support and
• AUDUSD traded south of 0.6800 for the first time since January of this year as the spread between Australian and US 2-year yields fell below parity for the first time in just over twelve months.

More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis