Market Quick Take – Markets find calm after Friday turmoil - 2 November 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: Oil prices ease and risk sentiment stabilizes on lack of weekend developments. US mid-term elections up tomorrow.
• Equities: US equities plunged on renewed AI spending concerns, Europe showed relative resilience, while Asian markets recovered from early losses.
• Volatility: VIX jumped on Friday's selloff while front futures eased in overnight trade
• Digital Assets: Coinbase led crypto equities lower and bitcoin funds saw their largest outflow since June
• Commodities: Brent slid with diplomacy in focus before the vote while gold steadied after its slump
• Fixed Income: US Treasuries steady Friday, showing little safe haven appeal. High yield bonds under pressure on weak risk sentiment.
• Currencies: USD choppy and mixed. AUD trades weaker ahead of RBA tomorrow.

Macro

• Crude prices fell, supporting a pause in the recent stock market selloff, as Qatari and Iranian officials met for a third consecutive day in an effort to secure a deal to halt the US-Israel war on Iran ahead of Tuesday’s US midterm elections. Tehran warned that renewed attacks would trigger retaliation, while President Trump pledged no further strikes before the vote but left the door open to military action afterwards. Gulf states remain concerned that renewed US-Israeli strikes could provoke a broader and more forceful Iranian response.
• China's official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in October from 50.1, below expectations and back in contraction, with weaker demand cited and business confidence at a seven-month low. Australia's final manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 49.6, matching September's 21-month low.
• German inflation slowed to 2.8% in October from 3.3%, below expectations, with a temporary fuel tax cut cited, and core eased to 2.1%. Eurozone third-quarter GDP grew 0.4% against a 0.2% forecast and unemployment held at 6.5%. The US employment cost index rose 0.8% in the third quarter and 3.4% from a year earlier.
• Key developments this week: Today brings final October manufacturing PMIs and the US ISM manufacturing index, with Apple and Palantir reporting after the US close. The week also holds the midterms and an RBA decision on Tuesday, the Treasury's quarterly refunding on Wednesday, Bank of England and Norges Bank decisions on Thursday and US payrolls on Friday.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 1445 – US Oct Manufacturing PMI (final)
• 1500 – US Oct ISM Manufacturing
• 0330 – Australia RBA Cash Target Announcement

Earnings events

• Monday: Apple, Palantir, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Marriott International, The Williams Companies, Diamondback Energy
• Tuesday: AMD, Amgen, Arista Networks, Shopify, Pfizer, Eaton Corp., Marathon Petroleum, Booking Holdings, Ferrari, Apollo Global Management
• Wednesday: McDonald’s, Qualcomm, Novo Nordisk, Uber, McKesson, CVS Health, Datadog, Applovin
• Thursday: ConocoPhillips, Deutsche Telekom, Canadian Natural Resources, Parker-Hannifin, Southern Company, Cloudflare, Duke Energy, Airbnb, Monster Beverage, Lumentum
• Friday: Enbridge, Moderna

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 fell 1.8%, the Dow lost 1.1%, and the Nasdaq 100 tumbled 3.5% on Friday, as disappointing earnings and heavy artificial intelligence spending revived concerns over technology valuations. Intel plunged 28.6% after issuing a weak fourth-quarter outlook, while Reddit dropped 29.2% after warning that declining search traffic could hurt user growth and revenue. Amazon slipped 1.4% as rising investment spending pressured free cash flow. The selloff marked Wall Street's worst session since June, with attention now turning to Apple's earnings and Tuesday's US midterm elections.
• Europe: The Stoxx 600 slipped 0.4% on Friday, while Germany's DAX fell 0.9%, the FTSE 100 edged up 0.1%, and France's CAC 40 was flat, as technology and banking shares came under pressure. ASML lost 6.1% as concerns over AI investment spread to European chipmakers, while Siemens Energy sank 6.9% amid selling in infrastructure-related stocks. In contrast, AstraZeneca surged 7.0% after strong results and plans to reduce costs, while Sanofi gained 4.7% after beating earnings expectations and lifting its outlook. Despite Friday's weakness, the Stoxx 600 gained 1.9% in October, highlighting Europe's relative resilience.
• Asia: Asian equities recovered from early losses on Monday, with South Korea's KOSPI rising around 2.5% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng advancing 0.5%, as investors reassessed Friday's US technology selloff. SK Hynix climbed 4.7%, supported by long-term customer agreements covering future memory production, while Samsung Electronics gained 2% after reversing earlier losses. In Japan, Kioxia fell nearly 17% following a disappointing profit forecast, highlighting growing differences between chipmakers despite strong AI demand. Chinese stocks also benefited from expectations of regulatory support, while investors awaited Apple's earnings, Australia's central bank decision and the US midterm elections.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 19.42 | VIX FUTURES: 19.450 (Nov) | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (149.76) | MARKET REGIME: NEUTRAL / CHOP | AS OF ~05:00 CET

• Friday's tech selloff pulled demand into the front of the volatility curve, and overnight trade has given back only part of it. The VIX rose almost 13% to 19.42, and one-day vol jumped about 42% to sit level with it, so single-session protection now costs as much as a month of cover. Nasdaq vol led as the chip rout spread.
• Overnight the front VIX future eased to 19.450 but still trades above the second contract. That leaves the front of the curve inverted, with a hump for the midterms, payrolls and CPI. MOVE climbed above 100, so rates vol confirmed the stress. Options price about 0.85% for today and 1.84% into 6 November, with ISM at 16:00 CET and Apple after the close.

More in our Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~78,789 +0.67% | ETHEREUM ~2,306 +1.42% | IBIT 43.36 -5.14% | ETHA 50.42 -4.47% | AS OF ~05:00 CET

• Listed crypto names took Friday's hit harder than the tokens, as the tech selloff and the Binance hack landed on already fragile sentiment. Coinbase lost about 11% after results in which investment gains carried profit while trading revenue shrank. Strategy fell about 8%, leaving bitcoin only a few percent above the company's average cost ahead of MSCI's 11 November index decision.
• AI-exposed miners sold off with chip stocks, and Core Scientific dropped about 14%. Bitcoin funds shed about USD 643m, their largest outflow since June, and ether funds about USD 156m. Bitcoin is back above USD 78,000 as Binance restores withdrawals. Cipher Digital reported before today's open, and Circle and Riot follow on Wednesday.

Commodities

• Oil: Brent trades down 3% with the January contract at USD 110 after trading above USD 114 on Friday. The latest decline came amid reports that President Trump favours giving diplomacy with Iran more time before potentially resuming strikes after Tuesday’s US midterm elections. Qatari and Iranian officials continued talks, although attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz highlighted persistent supply risks. Meanwhile, OPEC+ kept output targets unchanged through December, while Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast to USD 105 for December and an average of USD 88 in 2027, citing heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine.
• Precious metals: Gold rebounds 1% to USD 3,915 after Friday’s break below key support, now resistance, at USD 3,970 drove prices to a one-year low, leaving October down 6.8%. The selloff, fuelled by momentum selling and long liquidation, was exacerbated by the rout in AI stocks and rising energy prices. While structural support for gold in our opinion remains intact, market sentiment and positioning may need to stabilise before these drivers regain influence. For now, the focus remains on global equities, Middle East developments, energy prices and US rate expectations. Silver, which led last week’s selloff, rebounds 2.3% to USD 50.20, with traders watching for signs of stabilisation or renewed selling.
• Copper trades higher following a two-day correction driven by some of the same forces that weighed on precious metals, notably weakness in AI-related stocks that raised doubts about projected data centre demand. While sluggish Chinese manufacturing remains a concern, prices are finding support from growing signs of mine supply constraints. Meanwhile, premiums paid by Chinese importers over LME prices have reached record highs, signalling tightness in the world’s largest copper refining market.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US treasuries ended Friday only slightly lower after Thursday’s slide and despite very weak risk sentiment, suggesting that investors are somewhat cautious in reflexively seeing treasuries as a safe haven when oil prices are on the rise. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield trades early Monday near 4.60%, slightly higher from Friday’s close, while the benchmark 10-year yield yield edged slightly higher from Friday’s close, trading 4.93%.
• Prospects of renewed protests across Europe ahead of the weekend saw France’s sovereign debt under pressure Friday, sending the spread between French 10-year OATs and German Bunds about nine basis points higher to 165 basis points, with France’s benchmark 10-year OAT yield at 4.97%.
• US high yield bonds came under heavy pressure Friday amidst wide spread weak risk sentiment. The Bloomberg measure we track of the spread between US high yield bonds and US Treasuries widened 17 basis points to a new almost 18-month high of 340 basis points.

Currencies

• The US dollar saw choppy action Friday as it was inconsistent in providing safe haven appeal. Early Monday, there was no firm read on USD direction as EURUSD traded higher, but USDJPY was also higher and AUDUSD was slightly lower. EURUSD reversed its run above 1.1200 Friday, ending the week near 1.1160 before backing up early Monday to 1.1180 as pressure on risk sentiment eased and oil prices fell back on the lack of new developments in the Middle East.
• The Aussie slipped slightly ahead of tomorrow’s interest rate decision from the RBA, as the market leans strongly - about 87% - in favour of a rate hike at the meeting to take the Cash Target to 4.85%. The meeting looks important for the RBA’s forward guidance as forward expectations suggest that this would likely be the last hike for the cycle for now.

More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis