Market Quick Take - Soft jobs reshape expectations - 3 July 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US breadth improved despite a chip selloff, Europe rallied on healthcare and financials, Asia split as Korea plunged.
• Volatility: VIX eased despite a tech-specific vol spike, markets shut for the holiday
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin and Ether held steady despite the tech selloff, miners diverged sharply lower
• Commodities: Gold rises as weak jobs report and lower energy prices reduce rate hike odds
• Fixed Income: US short-dated treasuries rally on soft US jobs report.
• Currencies: US dollar sold off after soft June jobs report.
• Macro: US Market closed

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Macro

• The US labour market softened in June: Payrolls rose just 57K, below the 113K forecast, while April–May gains were revised down by 74K. Unemployment fell to 4.2%, but mainly due to a 720K drop in the labour force, pushing participation down to 61.5%.
• US factory orders fell 1.3% in May: The decline was smaller than expected and driven by weaker transport equipment and aircraft orders. Ex-transportation, orders rose a solid 1.9%, while nondurable goods gained 2.2%.
• Trump and his allies renew a push to reshape the Fed: After the Supreme Court blocked the removal of Governor Lisa Cook, the administration is exploring ways to replace Fed officials with its own picks, while also eyeing the Atlanta Fed leadership vacancy as an opportunity to expand its influence.
• More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0800 – Eurozone June PMI (final)
• 0830 – UK Services PMI (final)
• US cash markets will be closed today to mark July 4 holiday.

Earnings events

Next week:

• Wednesday: Kongsberg Gruppen
• Thursday: Pepsico, Fast Retailing, Progressive, Cintas, Seven and I Holdings
• Friday: Delta Airlines

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

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Equities

• USA: The Dow Jones rose 1.1% to a record 52,900.07, while the S&P 500 finished virtually flat at 7,483.24 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8% as chip weakness offset broader gains. Softer US jobs data eased rate-hike fears, but semiconductors stayed under pressure, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 5.4%. Apple gained 4.8% on reports of upcoming iPhone launches, while Tesla fell 7.5% despite beating delivery estimates and Meta lost 4.5% on renewed AI-capacity concerns. US markets are closed Friday for Independence Day, so Monday sets the next tone.
• Europe: The STOXX Europe 600 rose 1.4% to a record close, while Germany’s DAX gained 2.2%, the FTSE 100 added 1.7%, and France’s CAC 40 rose 1.7% as investors rotated into healthcare, financials, and defence. Softer US jobs data helped sentiment by reducing pressure from rate-hike expectations, while technology was the only major sector in decline as the global chip selloff spread. Bayer jumped 8.9% after steps to reduce Roundup litigation risk, AstraZeneca added 4.9% as healthcare led, and Saab rose 8.6% with defence shares. Markets now watch whether the rotation can hold without tech support.
• Asia: Asian equities rallied on Friday as softer US jobs data eased rate fears and regional PMI data pointed to firmer activity. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index ex-Japan rose 2.2%, while South Korea’s Kospi rebounded 5.0% to 8,028.40 after Thursday’s sharp chip-led selloff. Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.4%, and Singapore’s Straits Times Index added 0.4%. Buyers returned to Korean chipmakers, with SK Hynix up 11.3% and Samsung Electronics up 9.1%, as investors treated the prior rout as overdone rather than broken. The next test is whether the rebound survives thinner US holiday liquidity..
• More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

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Volatility

VIX 16.15 | VIX FUTURES: 17.80 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (150.02) | MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOL BULL

• VIX fell 2.65% to 16.15 Thursday as chipmakers extended a two-day, 11% slump on AI-valuation worries; June payrolls undershot at 57,000, pushing the priced Fed hike to December, read as a delay not a derailment.
• Nasdaq vol (VXN) rose 1.05% to 27.98, the clearer read on where stress sat; VIX9D eased to 12.37 into the weekend. Term structure held a normal slope (VIX3M 19.04, VIX6M 21.50, VIX1Y 23.16); SKEW stayed elevated at 150.02, MOVE fell to 65.40.
  US markets closed Friday for Independence Day. FOMC minutes due Wednesday 8 July.
• For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

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Digital Assets

• Bitcoin held near USD 61,400 and Ether near USD 1,700, both roughly flat Thursday despite the tech-led equity selloff, as the soft June jobs print eased near-term Fed hike pressure.
• US spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs saw sustained net outflows through June, over USD 4.5bn combined, even as IBIT, ETHA, Coinbase and MicroStrategy rose Thursday; miners diverged sharply lower.

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Commodities

• Gold trades higher for a third day, heading towards USD 4,200 and, following four weeks of losses, is on track for its best weekly gain since February, up 2.1%. Weak US jobs data and falling energy prices have reduced pressure on the Fed to raise rates this year, supporting bullion through a weaker dollar and softer yields.
• Despite the improvement, gold remains in a consolidation phase following its sharp correction over recent months, with some investors still using rallies to reduce exposure. Overall, the combination of lower energy prices, easing inflation expectations, a weaker dollar and softer yields suggests the market may be moving closer to establishing a cyclical low. Silver has gained 5.3% this week as buyers returned ahead of key support in the mid-USD 50s.
• Brent trades near unchanged on the week, having returned to pre-war levels, with support emerging ahead of USD 70. This may signal that the ongoing recovery in supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz is now largely priced in, while US-Iran talks continue with several issues still unresolved. Following the initial wall of supply attention may turn to efforts to re-build strategic and commercial reserves which in the coming months should boost demand beyond what's needed for consumption. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia have rapidly increased exports towards pre-war levels.
• The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) trades flat in a holiday-shortened week following a six-week decline that saw the index slump 12.4%. Weakness across industrial metals has been offset by recoveries in precious metals and grains, while softs have recorded the strongest weekly gain, led by a 10% jump in coffee.
• More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

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Fixed Income

• US short-dated treasuries rallied sharply on the weaker than expected US jobs report as the market slightly lowered its expectations for a Fed rate hike at one of the coming meetings. The benchmark 2-year yield fell as much as seven basis points after the data release before cutting that move in half and ending the day and the holiday-shortened trading week just below 4.14%. At the longer end of the curve, yields were largely steady, with the 10-year treasury yield closing near unchanged at 4.48%, rebounding from a dip post-jobs report.
• Japan’s long-dated government bonds steadied on Friday after Thursday’s session took yield close to the very top of the range since the 10-year and 20-year JGB benchmarks posted multi-decade highs in May.

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Currencies

• The US dollar sold off in reaction to the softer than expected June US jobs report. EURUSD traded as high as 1.1473 after trading near 1.1400 ehad of the data release, while AUDUSD rallied to 0.6940+ after testing its 200-day movng average earlier this week at 0.6865.
• A steep slide in USDJPY Thursday suggested Japan’s Ministry of Finance intervened to strengthen the Japanese JPY. USDJPY had weakened from above 162.30 early Thursday to as low as 160.91 even before the US reported weak jobs data, which inspired further choppy price action and minor new lows near 160.40 before two-way price action set in, capped by 161.50. Finance minister Katayama said Friday that the ministry remains ready to act on the yen and is in contact with the US on FX policy.
• More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis