Market Quick Take – 21 November 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US slid to one-month lows as AI leaders reversed post-Nvidia gains, Europe inched higher, Asia stayed cautious with Hong Kong flat
• Volatility: IX spikes to 26, SPX drops 1.6%, options expiry today, skew favours puts, Fed tone divides markets
• Digital assets: BTC < $86k; ETH below $2,800, $900m ETF outflows
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields drop on safe haven appeal. Japan’s JGB yields also fall back after recent steep rise.
• Currencies: JPY finds modest support from lows
• Commodities: Gold sideways, silver sells off and below key 50 level, crude oil weak
• Macro events: Flash Nov. Eurozone, UK and US Manufacturing and Services PMIs

Macro headlines

• US nonfarm payrolls increased by 119K in September 2025, surpassing forecasts of 50K and rebounding from a 4K decline in August. Gains were led by health care (43K) and food services (37K), while losses occurred in transportation (-25K) and manufacturing (-6K). Unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3%
• Japan announced a JPY 21.3 Trillion (USD 135 billion, or about 3% of GDP) fiscal package, the largest since the pandemic and larger than 2024’s JPY 13.9 trillion package, much of which was direct payments for price relief for gas and electricity prices, a cash handout for children and aid for regional governments.
• Japan's annual inflation rose 3.0% year-on-year as expected in October 2025 from 2.9% in September, the highest since July. Core inflation was also 3.0% as expected, the highest in three months. Monthly CPI rose by 0.4% as expected, the highest since January.
• US continuing jobless claims rose to 1.974 million for the week ending November 8, 2025, the highest since 2021, indicating slowed hiring. Initial claims dropped by 8,000 to 220,000 for the week ending November 15. The increase suggests reduced hiring rather than more layoffs. Federal workers' claims jumped to 38,867, up 400% from pre-shutdown levels in October.
• Trump removed his 40% tariffs on Brazilian food products, including beef and coffee, initially imposed to penalize Brazil for prosecuting Jair Bolsonaro. This reversal, following a similar move last week, aims to lower US food costs. Effective November 13, it may require refunding duties collected previously. Brazil supplies one-third of US coffee and is a key beef supplier for burgers.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed
0700 – UK Oct. Retail Sales
0815 – France Nov. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
0830 - Germany Nov. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
0900 – Eurozone Nov. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
0930 – UK Nov. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
1330 – US Fed’s Miran to appear on Bloomberg TV
1330 – Canada Sep. Retail Sales
1445 – US Nov. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
1500 – US Nov. Final University of Michigan Sentiment

Earnings events

• Monday: Prosus, Naspers, Alimentation Couche Tard, Agilent
• Tuesday: Analog Devices, Dell Technologies, Autodesk, Workday, Compass Group, Zscaler
• Wednesday: Deere

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: US stocks slid to one-month lows on Thursday as AI valuations and rate worries bit again. The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.4%, the S&P 500 lost 1.6% and the Dow dropped 0.8% after delayed payrolls data showed stronger job growth, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged in December. Nvidia reversed an early surge to finish a little over 3% lower as investors questioned how long AI capex can stay this strong. The wider AI complex was hit harder, with AMD down 7.8%, Micron 10.9% and Oracle 6.6% as investors took profits in crowded AI trades. Walmart was the clear outlier, jumping around 6% on an earnings beat and higher guidance, keeping the consumer and the next Fed meeting firmly in focus.
• Europe: European stocks snapped their losing streak as Nvidia’s strong outlook calmed immediate AI-bubble fears. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.5% and the Stoxx 600 0.4%, helped by renewed interest in data-centre and electrification plays: Siemens added about 1.1%, while Schneider Electric gained roughly 0.5% as investors looked for grid and power beneficiaries of AI spending. BNP Paribas rallied 4.4% after lifting its core capital target to 13% by 2027 and announcing a fresh €1.15 billion buyback, supporting sentiment in banks. By contrast, Novartis slipped around 1.8% even as it raised its 2025–2030 sales growth outlook, underlining how demanding the market has become for “quality growth” pharma.
• Asia: Asian trading stayed cautious as the initial excitement around Nvidia faded. The Hang Seng ended essentially flat around 25,800 after early gains faded, with strength in financials offset by weakness in tech, property and consumer names. The PBoC kept lending rates at record lows for a sixth meeting, signalling ongoing support but no big new stimulus. Techtronic and KE Holdings each climbed around 4–5%, reflecting hopes for targeted policy support and better housing activity, while Xiaomi fell roughly 2.9% and Zijin Mining about 1% as China growth and metals demand worries persisted. Overall, the region stayed in wait-and-see mode ahead of clearer signals on US rates, China property measures and whether AI infrastructure spending truly broadens beyond Nvidia.

Volatility

• The VIX rose sharply to close at 26.42 (+2.76), as the SPX dropped 1.56% following a dramatic intraday reversal. Options expiry today could inject further swings into the session, especially near the close. SPX weekly options imply a ±1.3% move, consistent with recent volatility. While the day began with optimism on Nvidia’s earnings, a reversal erased gains, dragging broader indices lower. Fed officials added to the uncertainty by pushing back on aggressive rate-cut expectations.
• Our skew indicator shows ongoing preference for downside protection, with puts still trading at a premium to calls.

Digital Assets

• Crypto selloff accelerates amid ETF outflows and rate doubts. Bitcoin slid below $86k overnight, down over 6.8%, extending weekly losses to over 8%. Ethereum dropped to $2,800 (–8.3%), with major altcoins down 7–10%. Selling was triggered by nearly $900m in spot bitcoin ETF outflows, led by IBIT. ETHA also weakened further, now posting YTD losses, while blockchain equities such as MSTR fell over 5%.
• Uncertainty around Fed policy, mixed US labour data, and thinning crypto liquidity have added to pressure. Despite retail interest in tokens like $TRUMP and meme coins, institutional flows remain subdued. Bitcoin’s break below its 365-day moving average and weak ETF inflows (–52% vs last year) are key bearish signals. Strategy Inc (MSTR) may also face index exclusion risks due to valuation pressures.

Fixed Income

• US Treasuries rallied on the vicious turn in risk sentiment yesterday, with the benchmark 2-year yield cratering from a three basis point rise to above 3.62% early in yesterday’s session, to 3.53% at the lows, trading 3.54% this morning. The 10-year benchmark treasury yield dropped four basis points to 4.09%.
• The spread between US high yield corporate debt yields and US treasury yields widened modestly yesterday despite the deep funk in risk sentiment, with the Bloomberg measure of the spread we track two basis points wider to 302 basis points, two basis points from five-month highs.
• Japan’s yields reversed lower after the recent series of post-GFC highs at the long end of the yield curve. The benchmark 10-year JGB fell four basis points to 1.785% as of this writing and the benchmark 30-year yield fell six basis points to 3.326% in late trading in Tokyo.

Commodities

• Oil prices are under pressure as the US will pressure Ukraine to accept the terms of a draft plan to end the war it has pieced together with Russia, even as sanctions are set to hit Russian crude from largest producers Rosneft and Lukoil. January Brent trades near the range low of 62.34, with the next support near the 60.00/bbl area. Ukraine’s president Zelenskiy is said to be considering the draft plan.
• Gold has chopped around and is under modest pressure late in Asia near USD 4,050 per ounce, while silver is under more pressure, threatening the recent range support bloe 49.50 late in Asian trading after trading as high as 51.86 yesterday.

Currencies

• The JPY finally stopped weakening after a USDJPY peak of 157.89 yesterday, with modest consolidation in the Asian session as the Takaichi government announced the large stimulus package, the size of which was in line with a draft plan circulated by Reuters yesterday. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda weighed in with verbal intervention, noting that he is watching the currency market closely, while new finance minister Katayama said that intervention is an option to stem JPY weakness.
• Elsewhere, the US dollar saw little volatility, with pro-cyclical currencies like the commodity dollars AUD, CAD and NZD under modest pressure.

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