Market Quick Take – 21 August 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: U.S. slipped on tech and mixed retail; Europe mixed as staples outperformed and industrials lagged; Asia firmer in Hong Kong but weaker in Japan; UK hit a record on consumer strength
• Volatility: VIX 15.69, VIX1D 10.90, Sep VIX future 18.39; curve in contango; options imply a 63.2-point SPX move, or 1.0%
• Digital Assets: BTC $114,280 (+1.3%), ETH $4,335 (+6.4%) on the 00:00 UTC cut
• Fixed Income: Weak JGB market overnight contrasts with rallies elsewhere yesterday.
• Currencies: Sterling weaker. JPY rebound eases as USD firms broadly.
• Commodities: Crude firmer on US stockpile drop. G
• Macro events: August PMIs from Eurozone, UK and the U.S.

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Macro headlines

• Fed July minutes showed most officials favoured holding rates highlighting the risk to inflation as outweighing concerns over the labor market as tariffs fuelled a growing a divide. Investors now look to Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday for rate cut signals.
• Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook signalled her intention to remain at the central bank, saying “I have no intention of being bullied to step down from my position because of some questions raised in a tweet,” from President Donald Trump over allegations of mortgage fraud.
• Australia’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.9 in August, the fastest expansion in nearly three years. Output and new orders surged, driven by stronger demand and broader customer bases. Despite rising orders, employment dipped slightly. Input costs rose, though inflation eased.
• Eurozone inflation held steady at 2% in July, matching the ECB’s target for a second straight month and slightly exceeding market expectations of 1.9%. 

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0715 – France Flash Aug. Manufacturing and Services PMI
0730 – Germany Flash Aug. Manufacturing and Services PMI
0800 – Eurozone Flash Aug Manufacturing and Services PMI
0830 – UK Aug Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
1230 – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims
1345 – US Flash Aug. Manufacturing and Services PMI
1400 – Eurozone Aug Consumer Confidence
1400 – US July Existing Home Sales
1430 – EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change
Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins (through Saturday)

Earnings events

Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.

• Today: Walmart, Intuit, Ross Stores, Workday

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA
U.S. stocks eased as tech cooled into Jackson Hole and retail prints diverged. The S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq-100 lost 0.7%, while the Dow was flat. Intel slid 7.0% after funding headlines whipsawed sentiment following Tuesday’s pop on talk of a potential U.S. stake, underscoring uncertainty around its turnaround. Target dropped 6.3% after an earnings beat but soft sales and a CEO change, while Lowe’s rose 3.3% on a beat, a guidance lift, and an $8.8bn deal for Foundation Building Materials; TJX added 2.7% on comps strength. Focus now turns to Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks.

Europe
European stocks finished mixed as consumer staples outperformed and industrials eased. The EURO STOXX 50 fell 0.2% while the STOXX 600 rose 0.2% to 559.09. Schneider Electric fell 3.5% and Airbus lost 2.6% amid industrial softness. Offsetting, consumer staples firmed with Danone, L’Oreal and AB InBev up more than 1%. Attention stays on Jackson Hole as investors balance rotation into defensives with rate and growth signals.

Asia
Regional tone diverged. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.2% to 25,166 as China-linked sentiment steadied after the PBoC kept loan prime rates unchanged; property and financials led. Pop Mart jumped 12.7% on strong earnings and guidance, while Sunny Optical climbed 10.0% and HKEX added 1.6%. Japan weakened, with the Nikkei down 1.5% as chip names tracked the U.S. tech pullback ahead of Jackson Hole.

UK
The FTSE 100 gained 1.1% to a record 9,288, led by consumer and services strength after the UK inflation print refocused rate expectations. RELX rose 2.4% and London Stock Exchange Group added 2.4%, while Rolls-Royce fell 3.2% as defence shares lagged on de-risking. The tape remains sensitive to policy cues and Jackson Hole headlines.

Digital Assets

Bitcoin closed at $114,280 (+1.3%) and Ethereum at $4,335 (+6.4%) on the official 00:00 UTC cut. U.S. spot BTC ETFs posted −$220.0m net outflows led by GBTC and ARKB, partly offset by small FBTC inflows; spot ETH ETFs saw −$257.8m net outflows despite modest ETHA and ETHE inflows.

Volatility

Spot VIX sits below the Sep future, keeping a mild contango that signals contained near-term stress despite the tech wobble. With VIX at 15.69 and SPX at 6,395.78, the VIX-based daily move is ~63.2 points, or 1.0%.

Fixed Income

• Global sovereign bond markets rallied yesterday, with the rally in UK gilts most prominent among major markets as the 30-year Gilt fell some seven basis points after teasing the highs of the cycle above 5.60%. German 30-year yields have likewise shied away from pushing to new highs for the cycle after hitting the highest levels since 2011 at the start of the week. The benchmark US 30-year T-bond yield has stayed well within the range this week, dipping back slightly just below 4.90% yesterday.
• Japanese government bonds remain weak relative to global peers as the benchmark 10-year JGB remains within two basis points of the cycle top above 1.60% despite bonds rallying elsewhere. Yields at the front end of the JGB yield curve also remain near the highs of the cycle on anticipation that the BoJ will eventually tighten policy.

• In crude oil, technical buying emerged near recent lows and was further supported after the EIA reported a 6 million-barrel drop in nationwide stockpiles, the largest since June, driven by stronger exports and refinery demand running at its highest pace since 2019. The prospect of U.S. sanctions against India’s profitable and growing crude trade with Russia also attracted some price-supportive attention.
• Gold continues to trade within a narrowing range, defined by its 50- and 100-day moving averages at USD 3,348 and USD 3,314 respectively, with traders showing limited risk appetite ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday and incoming U.S. economic data. 

Currencies

• The US dollar remained relatively firm, pushing back against a broad charge higher by the Japanese yen yesterday after global risk sentiment rebounded and equity markets did likewise in the US yesterday after an ugly start to the day. After trading 146.87 at one point yesterday, USDJPY rebounded to close to 147.50 overnight.
• Sterling weakened yesterday after the hotter than expected CPI numbers for July were released earlier in the day, which failed to impact forward expectations for the Bank of England’s further rate cutting, as in fact UK gilts rallied all along the curve yesterday. After briefly selling off on the CPI numbers, EURGBP rose to close above 0.8650.
• The US dollar remains near its highs since early May versus the AUD (AUDUSD 0.6420) and CAD (USDCAD 1.3880) despite the rebound in risk sentiment. As well, EURNZD is pushing on the 2.000 area amidst broad NZD weakness after yesterday’s dovish RBNZ meeting, the highest level for that pair in over 15 years.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.