Market Quick Take – 19 September 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US hit record highs as the Fed cut 25 bps and signaled more easing; Europe climbed on tech after the BoE slowed QT; Asia mixed with Japan at record highs and Hong Kong softer after the PBoC held rates
• Volatility: VIX stable; Fed cut priced in; BoJ surprises; triple witching today; SPX ±33pt move expected
• Digital Assets: BTC 116.9k; ETH 4.54k; IBIT/ETHA inflows; XRP and DOGE ETFs impress on launch volume
• Fixed Income: Japanese 2-year bond yields at post-GFC highs.
• Currencies: JPY rallies broadly on more hawkish BoJ and ahead of BoJ presser this morning
• Commodities: Gold and silver rally. Crude oil lower as record surplus expected next year.
• Macro events: BoJ press conference

Macro headlines

• The Bank of Japan kept the policy rate unchanged, but said it could raise the policy rate this year and would begin to unwind its holdings of Japanese stock ETFs and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT). Benchmark 2-year Japanese Government Bond yields rose to their highest level since 2008, rising two basis points to 0.91%. The Japanese yen strengthened across the board. Initial jobless claims dropped to 231k, surpassing the consensus of 240k and down from 264k. The four-week average remained stable at 240k, while continued claims declined to 1.92 million, edging below expectations of 1.95 million. Unadjusted claims fell by 10k to 194k, exceeding seasonal projections that anticipated a 17k decrease.
• Japan's National CPI dipped to 2.7% in August from 3.1% in July, its lowest since October 2024. Electricity and gas prices notably declined, though housing and transport costs rose. Food inflation eased slightly, with rice prices growing minimally. Core inflation matched forecasts at 2.7%, as monthly CPI rose 0.1%.
• The Bank of England held the Bank Rate at 4.0% by a 7-2 vote, as expected, amid inflation concerns and potential demand weakness. The MPC reduced QT to GBP 70 billion, adjusting gilt sales maturity to ease Treasury pressures. The meeting awaited confirmation on inflation peaking and disinflation resuming.
• Germany's parliament approved a transformative 2025 budget following fiscal reforms. Total investments reach €116 billion, backed by a €500 billion infrastructure fund. Defence spending, exempt from debt rules, rises to 2.4% of GDP. Finance Minister Klingbeil called it a significant shift in fiscal policy amid last year's coalition collapse. The debates for the 2026 budget are set for next week.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0630 – Japan Bank of Japan Governor Ueda press conference

Earnings events

Next week

Tuesday: Micron, Autozone

Wednesday: Cintas

Thursday: Costco, Accenture, H&M Hennes & Mauritz,

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: S&P 500 +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.9%, Dow +0.3% as investors embraced the Fed’s 25 bp cut and guidance that further easing is likely. Jobless claims fell to 231k, easing labor concerns. Intel jumped 22.8% after Nvidia said it would invest $5bn, while Nvidia rose 3.5% as chip sentiment firmed. CrowdStrike surged 12.8% on multiple broker target hikes, and Palantir gained 5.1% amid ongoing AI and government demand momentum. Focus turns to PMIs and how the Intel–Nvidia tie-up ripples through the chip supply chain.
• Europe: Euro Stoxx 50 +1.6%, Stoxx 600 +0.8%, FTSE 100 +0.2%. Tech led after the Fed cut and the BoE held rates while slowing QT, easing duration pressure. ASML rallied 7.7% as optimism on leading-edge capex rose; SAP added 5.4% as lower yields supported long-duration software; Infineon gained 3.2% with semis firmer; Novo Nordisk rose 6.2% on positive oral Wegovy pill data.
• Asia: Prior closes mixed. Nikkei 225 +1.1% to a record as chip-equipment names rallied, with Lasertec +11% and Tokio Electron +2.5% among the strongest. Hang Seng −1.4% to 26,545 as property and financials weighed after the PBoC kept the 7-day reverse repo rate at 1.40%. Tokyo Electric Power also rose 5.4% as defensives caught a bid. BOJ decision is the next catalyst.

Volatility

• Volatility stayed relatively calm on Thursday despite multiple crosswinds. The VIX edged down to 15.70, and both VIX1D and VIX9D declined, indicating short-term hedging activity has eased. The SPX added 0.48%, led by strength in megacaps and a quiet macro calendar post-Fed. However, today’s triple witching—with quarterly options and futures expiry—could inject sharp intraday swings, especially near the close. The Bank of Japan held rates steady at 0.50% but hinted at scaling back ETF and J-REIT holdings, a minor hawkish surprise that may affect global yield curves and risk sentiment.
  
  SPX expected move for today: ±33 points (~0.5%), according to ATM straddle pricing.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets are holding steady into U.S. options expiry, with BTC near 116.9k and ETH around 4.54k, reflecting muted moves following the Fed’s dovish cut and BoJ's stance. ETF activity remains in focus: IBIT added $150m in inflows, and ETHA also saw positive flows on 18 September, showing persistent institutional interest. Meanwhile, attention turned to altcoin ETFs: XRPR, the first U.S. XRP ETF, traded a surprising $24m in volume within 90 minutes of launch, while DOJE, the Dogecoin ETF, cleared $6m in its debut hour. Despite broader altcoins being mixed (SOL, XRP down; DOGE flat), these launches show growing demand for regulated crypto exposure.

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields poked above the local range of the last eight sessions before treasuries found support, with the benchmark 10-year treasury yield posting a 4.135% high before pulling back to 4.104% and then rising to 4.12% overnight.
• As noted above, Japan’s short JGB yields rose to new highs since 2008 on anticipation of a rate hike as early as this year from the BoJ after the BoJ meeting overnight, as odds for a rate hike at either the October or December BoJ meeting rose and 25-basis point hike fully priced for the January meeting. Japan’s 2-year JGB yield rose two basis points through the highs of the year to 0.91% while the benchmark 10-year yield also rose and is threatening the highs of the cycle since 2008 near 1.65% as well.

Commodities

• Gold and silver found their footing and bounced back overnight, with gold rising above USD 3,655 an ounce from a closing level of 3,645 and silver mounting a more determined rally to USD 42.32 an ounce as of this writing after a close yesterday at 41.82.
• Crude oil trades lower as US President Trump said that the war in Ukraine would end if prices come down further. Ukraine attacked two more Russian refineries yesterday in some of the deepest ever strikes into Russian territory. The IEA predicts a record surplus of crude oil next year. November Brent trades below 67.50 after falling about 1% yesterday.

Currencies

• The Japanese yen was the big mover overnight on a hawkish BoJ meeting, although with a relatively firm US dollar yesterday and overnight, USDJPY is still far off the post-FOMC lows, backing off to 147.30 after trading above 148.00 yesterday after the sharp rally. EURJPY backed down lower after posting its highest levels for the year near at 174.50 just ahead of the meeting, trading closer to 173.50 ahead of the BoJ Governor Ueda press conference.
• The US dollar has firmed post-FOMC, with EURUSD below 1.1780 this morning and GBPUSD near 1.3545, while AUDUSD trades just above 0.6600 after a brief spurt to 0.6700+ in the immediate wake of the FOMC meeting.

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