Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 23...
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 23...
Top of Mind…
- New week, new month – lets all make it a strong run to the final month of 2Q / 1H 20. Damn, time flies when you are in lock-down! Stay strong folks, we’ll get through this.
- Think as Jun kicks in, summer in the Northern Hemisphere is what its all about – numero uno event to keep on your radar (outside of C19 implications, re-openings, potential 2nd waves, US/CH trade breakdown) is that at some point focus will gravitate towards the Nov 3 Biden vs. Trump. Likely less interesting for assets overall – compared to a Trump vs. Sanders/Warren – yet could have huge implication to US anti or pro globalization… i.e. Biden would likely pivot back to Asia big time whilst trump would likely continue to double down on his modus operandi (consistency in being inconsistent, yet no matter what, equities should rise).
- As we talked about in our May Macro Dragon’s monthly high probability exercise, still expect more fiscal stimulus & monetary stimulus in the quarters to years ahead… i.e. we are not done, with central bank & government debt balance sheet expansions…
- Economic data wise: This week is all about final PMIs across the board, ISMs from the US, including NFP, U/R & AHE. Still feel this is a market geared towards bullish interpretation regardless of economic data & the PMIs (apart from China) are likely to get more interesting from 3Q… as that should be when most of the world is “open” at least locally.
- Central Banks: Quite a few central banks on the radar this wk including the ECB, RBA & BoC.
- Holidays: SW, FR, GER & NZ out on Mon, IT on Tues
- US: Final PMIs, ISMs, ADP, Factory Orders, AHE, U/R & NFP
- CH: Final Official PMIs mfg. 51.1e 50.8, serv. 53.5e 53.2p & China Caixin PMIs mfg. 49.6e 49.4, serv. 47.5e 44.4p
- EZ: Final PMIs, regional jobs data, Retail Sales, ECM, GER Factory Orders
- JP: Capital Spending, Monetary Base, Household Spending, Leading Indicators
- UK: Finals PMIs, M4 Supply, Mortgage Approvals, Construction PMI, Gfk Cons. Conf.
- AU: AIG mfg. + construction Index, MI Inflation, Current Account, RBA, GDP Q/Q, Retail Sales
- NZ: Building Consents, Overseas Trade, Milk Auction, ANZ Commodity Prices
- CA: Mfg. PMI, BoC, Trade Balance, Jobs data, Ivey PMI
If You Have Not, Please Make The Bandwidth For The Following…
- Latest Macro Digest from our CIO & Chief Strategist, Jakobsen. Macro Digest: Strategy Change - Neutral Risk to Negative Risk - The real "virus" is insolvency and unemployment
- May 14 Thu – Saxo Market Call, where we touched on bitcoin, gold, negative rates & banks – again keep re-flagging this one, as there is a lot of shelf life in the themes discussed here
- Macro Dragon: Checking-in on Bitcoin... Legendary Trader Paul Tudor Jones, is in Love, with Bitcoin & Gold...
- Banging the drums & blowing the trumpets on this again… this will be max one of the special eight from KVP this year
- Make time for NOK & Norway folks, JJH touches on part of the implication on the fiscal measures announced last wk FX Update: NOK to break higher on massive stimulus? This has been a gang-buster trade view from Hardy & Jakobsen - kudos.
- Dragon’s bull case for gold… Dissecting Gold part II of III... The Bull & of course a framework for the other side Dissecting Gold part I of III... The Bear
- Dembik’s latest on the EU power grab: The “nationalization” of the bond market is the ultimate rampart against sovereign debt crisis
- Garnry makes time for something that has been in demand for a while from our clients, mining equity names With a positive gold outlook are gold miners attractive? As well as the multi-billion dollar question have US equities finally peaked relative to Europe
USDCNH touching on ATHs – all about +7.20 & Aussie could see massive reversal - & why unlike in Jan this year, its to Trump’s advantage to break up the trade deal with China
Start-End = Gratitude+Integrity+Vision. Create Luck. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.