Everything is perfect
Chief Economist & CIO
Summary: I have done the first macro presentation for 2020 and to my own surprise it ended up being titled: Everything is perfect...
Maybe the color and motive of front-page of the presentation gives away, the “slight irony involved:
There is for my money a big risk we are in a “false positive” period of macro, because looking at 2019 – Everything was Perfect:
T.I.N.A became the most powerful woman :)
Both monetary & fiscal policy reversed course and FED – as is often the case these days- panicked on REPO
SNB meanwhile continues to expand its balance sheet massively, but every time they intervene they make the CHF stronger not weaker why? TINA of course!
There is a “hope” we have hand-over for “growth stimulus” from US to rest of world, and when we say rest of world we mean China. China’s GDP in $-terms contracted last year, which meant slow global growth, this year starts with a bang – USDCNY is down, meaning GROWTH is up in the rest of world supporting commodities...
Finally – we and our advisors all agree two things matters in 2020:
The US election and most importantly, the direction of the Dollar. IF they dollar does not weaken we will get RECESSION, if it “helps” by being weaker world could recreate a new okay year for equities. What will it be?