Technical Technical Technical

Technical Update - Energy. Oil, Gasoline and Henry Hub gas bouncing off supports. Dutch gas treading water

Commodities 5 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  Brent and WTI oil are bouncing from rising trend lines. Correction could be over. Henry Hub have been hit by massive selling but seems to have found a floor. Dutch Gas trading sideways around Pivot levels.
Emission ready to break out of range


After a minor correction Brent Crude oil is bouncing of the short-term rising trend line and looks set to resume uptrend. The RSI has bounced of the 40 threshold i.e. still bullish sentiment despite divergence early this month. Resistance at 118.30 and key resistance at 121.25. If breaking above 121.25 June highs are likely to be taken out. 
This likely bullish scenario is to be reversed if Brent Oil breaks below $107

Source: Saxo Group

WTI Crude oil dipped below its short-term rising trendline, formed a Doji Morning bottom and reversal pattern indicating higher levels in WTI. Resistance at $115.22. If WTI drops below 101 selling pressure is likely to take WTI down to key support at around $92.93

Source: Saxo Group

Gasoline seems to have found a support at 0.50 Fibonacci retracement at 365 bouncing off the level twice last week and not even testing the rising trend line. Correction in Gasoline could be over. That scenario will be confirmed if Gasoline moves back above the upper trend line I broke below last week. Key resistance at 406.50.
RSI still showing divergence but if RSI closes above 60 and the falling trend line previous highs could be tested. 
If Gasoline closes below 364 the trend line is likely to be broken. Next support at 349 but no strong support before 298

Source: Saxo Group

Henry Hub gas seems to find support at $6.00, few pence above the 0.618 retracement of the 2022 bull market. Currently trading above key level at 6.41.
RSI still showing bearish sentiment indicating lower levels. However, if buyers can keep gas above the 6.41 there could upside to 7.70-7.83. 
RSI falling trend line can be key for direction. If RSI is rejected bear trend could resume. If it is broken further upside is likely.

Source: Saxo Group

Dutch TTF gas is hovering around Bull/Bear pivot at €127.50. Trend is up, however. RSI indicates higher levels, but Dutch Gas could be dipping a bit lower in a correction that could take it to test €111. If it does not close below 111, higher levels should be expected.

Source: Saxo Group

Carbon emission Is still range bound in a tighter and tighter range is trying to break out of symmetrical triangle like pattern. A breakout is needed for direction. 
If break out is bearish key support is 75.85. If breakout is bullish May highs at 92.75 could be tested.

Source: Saxo Group
Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia

Contact Saxo

Select region

Australia
Australia

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.