Saxo Q4 2025 outlook
Copenhagen, Denmark – 1 October 2025 – Today, Saxo, the leading online trading and investment company, has released its quarterly outlook for Q4 2025, focused on the rapidly evolving global economic and market landscape. The outlook is divided into two key perspectives: an investor outlook and a trader outlook, each highlighting significant themes and potential risks for the upcoming quarter.
1. Investor outlook: Diversification 2.0 – building resilience for all seasons
By Jacob Falkencrone, Global Head of Investment Strategy
The investor outlook for Q4 2025 emphasises the urgent need for a new approach to diversification as traditional strategies lose effectiveness. Key points include:
- Beyond 60/40: The classic mix of stocks and bonds is no longer a reliable shield. Investors must diversify “differently”—across regions, sectors, and risk drivers.
- Equities: Remain the engine of portfolios, but selectivity is crucial. US tech leadership is narrowing, while Europe and Asia offer compelling alternatives. Japan’s reforms and India’s digital boom are underrepresented in global benchmarks.
- Bonds & Gold: Bonds are back as income generators, especially in the 3–7-year maturity range. Gold has reasserted itself as a core portfolio stabiliser, hitting record highs.
- Five Key Bets: Europe, Asia (China, Japan, India), small-caps, mid-curve bonds, and real assets—especially gold—are highlighted as the most compelling opportunities for Q4.
- Resilience over prediction: The focus is on building portfolios that can withstand surprises, not just chase trends.
“Diversification is not about owning more, it’s about owning differently. In 2025, it’s not just prudent – it’s survival.” — Jacob Falkencrone
2.Trader outlook: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different?
By John J. Hardy, Head of Global Macro Strategy and Ole S. Hansen, Head of Commodity strategy
The trader outlook for Q4 2025 explores the dramatic contrasts and shifting dynamics in global markets. Key highlights include:
- US recession risks: Risks are building, but a recession may be averted if demand snaps back as trade policy uncertainty clears. The Fed’s easing policy is expected to operate with a lag, impacting markets into 2026.
- China & Europe: China is boosting exports and supporting growth despite US tariffs but must rebalance its economy. Europe faces policy urgency amid geopolitical threats and fiscal risks, with France’s political instability in focus.
- Currencies & Rates: The US dollar is expected to weaken eventually, with the Japanese yen poised for strength as the Bank of Japan hikes rates. The euro faces headwinds from political and fiscal uncertainty.
- Equities: The outlook is cautious, with US market valuations stretched and the AI investment cycle possibly nearing a turning point. Europe and emerging markets may offer more constructive opportunities.
- Commodities: Gold has surged nearly 40% this year, reflecting investor unease about global debt and inflation. Saxo maintains a bullish long-term view, with further upside expected as central bank independence is questioned. Silver has also seen a strong rally lately, which could continue, if gold maintains its climb.
“The contrasts are stark, and the outlook is hazier than ever. Will global markets continue their ascent, enjoying further tailwinds from a fresh Fed easing cycle kicked off at the September FOMC meeting and the accompanying weaker US dollar? Or are we set for a retrenchment on a growth slowdown, as the tax-like first-round effects of tariffs accumulate and the high interest rates of the previous cycle accumulate and/or the AI capital expenditure frenzy slows?” — John J. Hardy
Saxo’s Q4 2025 outlook underscores the importance of strategic diversification and careful monitoring of macro and geopolitical developments. Investors and traders are encouraged to broaden their horizons and position portfolios to benefit from shifting global flows and structural opportunities.
For more information on Saxo’s Q4 2025 market outlook, please visit Saxo’s website.
At Saxo we believe that when you invest, you unlock a new curiosity for the world around you. As a provider of multi-asset trading and investment solutions, Saxo’s purpose is to Get Curious People Invested in the World. We are committed to enabling our clients to make more of their money. Saxo was founded in Copenhagen, Denmark in 1992 with a clear vision: to make the global financial markets accessible for more people. In 1998, Saxo launched one of the first online trading platforms in Europe, providing professional-grade tools and easy access to global financial markets for anyone who wanted to invest.
Today, Saxo is an international award-winning investment firm for investors and traders who are serious about making more of their money. As a well-capitalised and profitable Fintech, Saxo is a fully licensed bank under the supervision of the Danish FSA, holding broker and banking licenses in multiple jurisdictions. As one of the earliest fintechs in the world, Saxo continues to invest heavily into our technology. Saxo’s clients and partners enjoy broad access to global capital markets across asset classes on our industry-leading platforms. Our open banking technology also powers more than 150 financial institutions as partners by boosting the investment experience they can offer their clients. Keeping our headquarters in Copenhagen, Saxo has more than 2,300 professionals in financial centres around the world including London, Singapore, Amsterdam, Hong Kong, Zurich, Dubai and Tokyo.
For more information, please visit: www.home.saxo