Saxo Investor Forecast: Investors most bullish on Japan despite broader caution on global markets

Investors around the world are maintaining a cautiously optimistic outlook for the next six months, with the strongest confidence directed towards Japan’s equity market, according to Saxo, the leader in online trading and investment, and its latest Investor Forecast Q1 2026.

The survey* gathered more than 1,600 responses across ten markets and asked clients how they expect major equity markets to perform in Q2 and Q3 2026. While respondents generally expect markets to rise, sentiment reflects a balanced mix of optimism and caution, particularly towards the US.

Japan stands out as the clear favourite among investors. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of respondents expect the Japanese equity market to increase in value over the next six months, more than any other major market surveyed. This compares with 57% expecting gains in the global market and just 40% predicting an increase in the US market. The relatively strong confidence in Japan comes amid broader concerns about valuations and macroeconomic risks elsewhere, suggesting investors may see the country as offering comparatively attractive opportunities in the current environment. The trend toward optimism about Japan is even more pronounced among UK investors. In the survey, more than three-quarters (76%) of UK respondents aged 36–60 expect the Japanese market to rise over the next six months.

Younger investors and women were generally the most optimistic across the survey. For example, 62% of women expect the global equity market to rise over the coming six months, compared with 57% of men. Similarly, respondents aged 18–35 were more positive about global and European markets than older cohorts.

“Investors are clearly walking a fine line between optimism and caution,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

“While all sentiment in this survey needs to be caveated with it being conducted in the days leading up to the US and Israel attacks on Iran. That and the ensuing hardship is bound to have changed sentiment for many investors. But, the standout result from this survey is the strong confidence in Japan compared with other major markets. While many investors remain wary of stretched valuations, particularly in the US, Japan is increasingly seen as a market where structural reforms and corporate improvements could continue to drive upside.

“More broadly, the results show investors are not rushing to make dramatic portfolio changes despite geopolitical tensions and rapid technological change. Instead, most appear to be sticking with their existing strategies while keeping a close eye on potential risks.”

Despite a volatile macroeconomic backdrop, nearly two-thirds of investors (63%) say they plan to maintain their current exposure to regions, sectors and asset classes over the next six months. Just over a quarter (27%) plan to diversify into new areas, while 10% say they may reduce diversification. Women were the most likely to expand their portfolios, with 34% saying they intend to diversify compared with 26% of men.

Across the survey, the single biggest factor influencing potential investment strategy changes is concern about market overvaluation. Nearly seven in ten respondents (69%) say they are reconsidering their approach because of worries that markets may be overstretched. Political developments also remain on investors’ radar, with 57% saying the potential impact of Donald Trump’s policies could influence their investment strategy.

Artificial intelligence presents both opportunity and risk for investors. While 56% say they may alter their strategy due to AI-driven opportunities, 53% say concerns around the technology could also shape their investment decisions. While regional responses broadly mirrored global trends, some local differences emerged in sentiment towards specific markets.

You can read more in the full report.