In 2021, economists discover that the growth rates in many frontiers and emerging markets have been woefully underestimated in recent years, especially when delving into the private sector and entrepreneurial developments. Closer analysis reveals that key technologies may lie at the root of an acceleration in private sector productivity growth far beyond anything seen in the developed markets in recent decades. From the growing speed and lower costs of internet provisioning to an explosion of the use of mobile-based payment systems, growth of the private sector and an entrepreneurial spirit are clearly behind a revolution in the quality as well as the quantity of growth.
2021 proves to be a Eureka moment for investors on the anticipation that three areas of technology are set to deliver an enormous further boost to frontier and emerging market growth in the coming years. The first is the arrival of satellite-based internet delivery systems, which are set to crush the price of internet provisioning, both increasing uptime and coverage area, but more importantly delivering an order of magnitude increase in download speeds. SpaceX’s Starlink will be the first on the scene there, with as many as 1,500 operational by the end of 2021. In emerging and frontier markets, education and business productivity will reap the benefits. Second is the ongoing revolution in fintech payment and banking systems which have already given billions of people access to the digital economy via their mobile devices.
Finally, just as reliable mobile telephony suddenly replaced creaky, unreliable landline telephone systems in emerging and frontier markets over the last few decades, drone technology is set to revolutionise delivery systems and reduce the disadvantages and costs of living away from the largest cities and towns. Drone technology combined with automation also has applications in agriculture, where practices in many under-developed rural areas across the world stand to gain the most from productivity upgrades.
Trade: long emerging market currencies on superior growth outlook.
See next 2021 prediction:
Amazon "buys" Cyprus
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.