Saxo Morning Call

Gold hangs in the balance as geo-risks rise

Michael McKenna
Head of Editorial Content, Saxo Bank

Between the US-Russia imbroglio, an unstable Syrian situation, North Korea, and a protectionist-leaning Trump administration, geopolitical risk is at a 15-year high with the related index at its highest level since the eve of the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

 "We see the gold trade experiencing jitters as these forces contend with the March 21 Federal Open Market Committee meeting [and its near-certain interest rate hike]," says Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen.

"We remain bullish above $1,285/oz," concludes Saxo's commodities head, noting the metal's current $1,300-$1,340/oz range.

In other commodities, Hansen points to crude oil needing a break as well with the latest EIA report due this afternoon. Hansen cites rising shale production and continued robust demand as the forces working bidirectionally on oil.

In agriculture, Hansen points to soybean prices hitting a 4.5-month low versus corn on speculation that US farmers are set to plant more soybeans than corn for the first time since 1983.

"An elevated fund long, a record Brazilian crop, and the risk of Chinese tariffs are among the factors weighing on soybean prices," says Saxo's commodities head.

In FX, Saxo Bank head of forex strategy John Hardy reports that the NOK is in traders' crosshairs this morning ahead of the Norges Bank rate announcement at 09:00 GMT.

"This 9.52 level in EURNOK is pivotal and we see investors looking at NOKSEK and EURNOK ahead of what is expected to be another hawkish outing from the Norwegian central bank".

In dollar terms, the US surprise index remains positive with the market seeing a collapse in implied volatility even as the protectionism-inclined Trump administration continues to provide plenty of headline drama in an already unstable global atmosphere.



The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.